FC UFA are tipped to win this encounter, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of Enisey taking the victory. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. FC UFA, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.36 goals scored and 0.73 conceded, while Enisey, on the road, average 0.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 81.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4% (hit), Under 3.5 at 76.7% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 75.4% (miss), Under 10.5 corners at 72.3%, and Over 1.5 at 71.6% (hit). The home side’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Enisey has just drawn.
Results analysis
FC UFA’s 3-0 triumph over Enisey confirmed the Pythia model’s prediction that the home side would win, a result that matched the model’s 45% favourite call. The win extended FC UFA’s two-game winning streak, while Enisey slipped into a draw-heavy run. The model’s selection for Under 5.5 cards hit with a 79.4% probability, and Under 3.5 also succeeded at 76.7%. Over 2.5 cards missed, though the model had a 75.4% chance, and Over 1.5 goals was a hit with 71.6% confidence. The most likely 2-goal total, at 27%, did not materialise, but the overall forecast proved largely accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC UFA win✓ Hit
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Enisey win✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC UFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.20
1.36
0.73
1.00
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
0.87
1.13
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.89
1.25
0.87
1.13
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.5%
Under 2.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.6%
FC UFA goals ↓
Enisey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
7.6%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.0%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.3%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC UFA goals (down), columns = Enisey goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Fakel
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
FC UFA is 0.32 points worse than Enisey in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
FC UFA is 0.12 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
FC UFA is 0.09 goals worse than Enisey in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC UFA
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Enisey
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 18.0 · Total 32.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC UFA
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
3.5
3.2
3.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
3.9
3.5
4.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
-
-
-
3.3
3.1
3.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
50%
40%
60%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
50%
60%
40%
-
-
-
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.5
5.5
-
3.2
3.2
3.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
2.7
0.0
4.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
5.5
5.5
-
3.3
3.3
3.2
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
44%
42%
46%
50%
50%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
56%
58%
54%
50%
50%
-
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
Fakel
9.2
Ural
9.0
FC UFA
8.9
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Torpedo Moskva
6.0
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
4.8
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
FC UFA
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.4
KAMAZ
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.1
Chayka
3.9
Chernomorets
3.9
FK Sokol Saratov
3.8
Enisey
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.7
Ural
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Arsenal Tula
3.4
Rodina Moskva
3.4
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Fakel
27.0
Ural
25.0
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.3%
Under 9.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.6%
Under 21.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC UFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.70
0.25
1.25
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.40
0.91
0.18
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.43
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.46
0.53
0.40
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC UFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.80
0.45
0.55
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Enisey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Enisey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.33
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.79
0.33
0.73
0.38
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC UFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC UFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC UFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Enisey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
FC UFA and Enisey have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →