FC UFA hosts KAMAZ in the Russia: First League on August 3. The recent form of both teams suggests a closely contested match, with FC UFA coming off a defeat to Ural, while KAMAZ suffered a loss to Volga Ulyanovsk. This storyline is reflected in the probabilities, with FC UFA favored to win at 42%, followed by a draw at 35%, and KAMAZ at 24%.
The model's pick is a home win, but it suggests a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 1.8 goals and the most likely scoreline being 0-0 with a 17.5% chance. FC UFA has been scoring an average of 1.36 goals at home, while conceding 1.0, while KAMAZ has scored 0.6 goals away and conceded 1.1.
The model's selections include under 9.5 corners (100% probability and a 48% edge), under 21.5 fouls (100%), under 3.5 goals (88.8% and a 12% edge), and under 2.5 goals (72.5% and a 14% edge). The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 35%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
In a stunning upset, FC UFA's home win streak came to an end as they drew 1-1 with KAMAZ. The final scoreline was a testament to the evenly matched contest, with both teams creating scoring opportunities. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's call was wrong, as KAMAZ's away form, although poor, was enough to secure a draw. The model's suggested picks did come through, however, with Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 both hitting, with probabilities of 88.8% and 72.5% respectively.
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.38 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.50 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.97 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.18 | 0.96 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| KAMAZ goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 17% | 11% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 16% | 14% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
FC UFA
KAMAZ
FC UFA| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (15) | - | - | - | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 44% | 40% | 48% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 56% | 60% | 52% | - | - | - |
KAMAZ| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | - | - | - | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 58% | 50% | 67% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 42% | 50% | 33% | - | - | - |
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
FC UFA| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.61 | 0.43 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 88.8% | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.17 | 1.17 | - | +11.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.9% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | - | - | - | +3.2% | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 | 72.5% | 1.62 | 1.66 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.61 | - | +14.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/08/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/05/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/10/22 | A | 2-2 |
FC UFA| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
KAMAZ| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |