Ararat-Armenia are tipped to win this Armenia Premier League clash, with the model giving them a 42% chance of victory, while a home win and a draw each sit at 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% probability. FC Urartu, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, whereas Ararat-Armenia on the road averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.5% chance and Over 1.5 with a 73.7% chance. The home win probability is 29%, the draw 29%, and the away win 42%. Each suggested pick is listed with its percentage and noted as a hit. This preview reflects the model’s clear preference for an Ararat-Armenia victory.
Results analysis
The match saw FC Urartu’s recent draw streak end as they fell 0-3 to Ararat-Armenia, a result that matched the model’s prediction of an away win. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” carried a 42% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: “Under 3.5” hit with a 74.5% chance, and “Over 1.5” also hit at 73.7%. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the away team’s dominance, and the predicted total of 2.6 goals was exceeded, with the most likely 2-goal outcome still plausible. Overall, the model’s forecast aligned well with the on-field outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Urartu win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia win✓ Hit
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.82
0.59
1.44
0.89
2.25
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
2.00
0.43
1.75
0.75
2.33
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.70
1.20
1.00
2.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.84
0.53
1.89
0.33
1.80
0.70
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
0.45
2.80
0.40
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
58% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
FC Urartu goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.8%
7.9%
3.7%
1.3%
1
7.5%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.0%
7.1%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
FC Urartu is 0.19 points better than Ararat-Armenia in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
FC Urartu is 0.06 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
FC Urartu is 0.06 goals better than Ararat-Armenia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.76
0.29
0.56
0.44
1.00
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.14
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
71% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.32
0.89
0.22
0.90
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.27
1.40
0.20
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
74% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
0.29
0.89
0.44
1.25
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.43
0.29
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.30
0.40
0.40
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
76% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
0.21
1.00
0.11
0.90
0.30
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.18
1.40
0.20
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
79% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
FC Urartu's squad is €3m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€5m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
FC Urartu and Ararat-Armenia have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's midfield is €1m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
FC Urartu's defence is €1m less valuable than Ararat-Armenia's (€2m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →