FC Urartu’s home form is a clear driver of the model’s confidence, with a 72% chance of winning and a 16% draw probability, while Ararat’s away odds sit at 12%. The model picks a home win as the most likely result, reflecting Urartu’s 4.25 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded at home against weaker opposition, versus Ararat’s 0.5 goals scored and 3.8 conceded away to stronger teams. The expected total of 4.0 goals is skewed toward a high-scoring affair, the most likely total being 6 or more with a 21% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Urartu, with an 8.6% probability. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (95.4%), Under 7.5 (95.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.1%), Over 1.5 (91.2%), Under 6.5 (89.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%) and Home or Draw (87.9%). The model’s edge on these selections is highlighted by the high percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Urartu win
72.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win
11.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
2.07
1.40
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.10
2.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.15
4.00
0.20
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.43
0.64
1.64
0.88
3.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
2.84
0.56
1.78
0.50
3.80
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.73
0.80
1.40
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.3%
Under 1.5
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.8%
Under 2.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
56.1%
Under 3.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.6%
3-1
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
3-0
7.3%
1-1
6.6%
4-1
5.8%
4-0
5.2%
2-2
4.8%
FC Urartu goals ↓
Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.5%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
1
4.8%
6.6%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
2
7.7%
8.6%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.3%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
4
5.2%
5.8%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
FC Urartu is 1.00 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
FC Urartu is 1.00 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
FC Urartu is 1.40 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Urartu or Draw
88.5%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers FC Urartu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu or Ararat
84.0%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers FC Urartu + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat
27.5%
Avg Implied -
73%
16%
11%
covers Draw + Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5
Over
94.2%
Under
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 3.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Urartu, so a minus line means FC Urartu give that many goals of a start and Ararat receive them. At -1, FC Urartu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Urartu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Urartu)
FC Urartu -2
33.3%
Draw -2
19.9%
Ararat +2
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Urartu)
FC Urartu -1
53.2%
Draw -1
19.3%
Ararat +1
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Urartu)
FC Urartu +1
88.5%
Draw +1
7.2%
Ararat -1
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Urartu)
FC Urartu +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.1%
Ararat -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.93
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.79
0.44
1.19
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.11
0.11
0.89
0.30
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.82
0.20
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
1.00
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.15
2.40
0.20
0.88
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.50
0.86
0.44
1.94
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.74
0.44
0.89
0.20
2.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.91
0.60
0.80
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
FC Urartu's squad is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Urartu and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
FC Urartu and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Syunik
Van