FC Urartu are tipped to edge BKMA at home, with the model favouring a home win at 47%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, pointing to a modestly low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14% chance, which aligns with the 28% probability that the total goals will be two. FC Urartu, playing against a weaker side, have been scoring 1.75 goals per game while conceding only 0.75 at home. BKMA, on the road against a stronger opponent, average just 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with an 80.2% probability, the only pick offered. Home win probability is 47%, draw 30%, and away win 23%. The recent form narrative shows Urartu coming off a draw and BKMA off a win, but the overall shape of the match still favours the home side.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows FC Urartu coming off a draw, while BKMA arrive after a win. The model’s favourite was a home win at 47 percent, and it proved correct as FC Urartu edged BKMA 1-0. The most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the model’s single selection, Under 3.5 at 80.2 percent, hit. The predicted score of 1-0 was achieved, confirming the model’s accuracy. All suggested picks were settled: Under 3.5 hit, and the final result matched the model’s forecast of a home victory. The match delivered on the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Urartu win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.70
1.53
1.00
2.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.77
0.85
1.29
1.29
2.33
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
2.18
0.59
1.75
0.75
2.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.40
1.20
1.73
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.76
1.12
2.12
0.67
1.44
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.92
1.29
1.29
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
12.7%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.4%
FC Urartu goals ↓
BKMA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
FC Urartu is 1.42 points better than BKMA in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
FC Urartu is 0.89 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
FC Urartu is 0.78 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.35
1.00
0.38
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
0.71
0.62
0.50
0.44
0.89
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.30
0.80
0.47
1.73
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
0.38
0.86
0.57
1.83
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
1.24
0.24
0.75
0.38
1.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.73
1.13
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
1.06
0.50
1.62
0.22
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
FC Urartu's squad is €3m more valuable than BKMA's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
FC Urartu's defence is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →