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FC Urartu vs BKMA Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Vs
47%
30%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Urartu are tipped to edge BKMA at home, with the model favouring a home win at 47%. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, pointing to a modestly low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14% chance, which aligns with the 28% probability that the total goals will be two. FC Urartu, playing against a weaker side, have been scoring 1.75 goals per game while conceding only 0.75 at home. BKMA, on the road against a stronger opponent, average just 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Under 3.5 with an 80.2% probability, the only pick offered. Home win probability is 47%, draw 30%, and away win 23%. The recent form narrative shows Urartu coming off a draw and BKMA off a win, but the overall shape of the match still favours the home side.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows FC Urartu coming off a draw, while BKMA arrive after a win. The model’s favourite was a home win at 47 percent, and it proved correct as FC Urartu edged BKMA 1-0. The most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the model’s single selection, Under 3.5 at 80.2 percent, hit. The predicted score of 1-0 was achieved, confirming the model’s accuracy. All suggested picks were settled: Under 3.5 hit, and the final result matched the model’s forecast of a home victory. The match delivered on the model’s expectations.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Urartu win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W20W10W13L00D22D31W50W10W40WH·LER11/03A·BKM16/03H·ALA02/04H·PYU11/04A·ARA16/04A·ARA22/04H·SHI27/04A·VAN02/05H·FC 08/05A·LER17/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.701.531.002.470.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.770.851.291.292.330.33
vs Weaker (17)2.180.591.750.752.560.44
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D02L03L01L12L11D51W21W21W21WH·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04H·ARA09/04A·ARA15/04A·SHI20/04H·VAN26/04A·FC 01/05H·LER09/05A·ALA16/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.401.201.730.801.07
vs Stronger (17)0.881.761.122.120.671.44
vs Similar (13)1.150.921.291.291.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
12.7%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.4%
FC Urartu goals ↓
BKMA goals →
01234
011%7.9%4.2%1.3%0.3%
113%14%5.8%1.8%0.4%
29.7%8.8%4.0%1.2%0.3%
34.4%4.0%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.5%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
FC Urartu is 1.42 points better than BKMA in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
FC Urartu is 0.89 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
FC Urartu is 0.78 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D10W12L00D01L10W10W00D20WH·LER11/03A·BKM16/03H·ALA02/04H·PYU11/04A·ARA16/04A·ARA22/04H·SHI27/04A·VAN02/05H·FC 08/05A·LER17/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.400.730.530.730.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.460.460.430.710.500.17
vs Weaker (17)0.940.351.000.380.890.33
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D02L00D12L00D11D11D11D21WH·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04H·ARA09/04A·ARA15/04A·SHI20/04H·VAN26/04A·FC 01/05H·LER09/05A·ALA16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.470.600.400.60
vs Stronger (17)0.530.710.620.500.440.89
vs Similar (13)0.310.460.290.710.330.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W00D01L00D21W21W40W10W20WH·LER11/03A·BKM16/03H·ALA02/04H·PYU11/04A·ARA16/04A·ARA22/04H·SHI27/04A·VAN02/05H·FC 08/05A·LER17/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.300.800.471.730.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.310.380.860.571.830.17
vs Weaker (17)1.240.240.750.381.670.11
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L01L01L00D11D40W10W10W00DH·ALA10/03H·FC 16/03A·PYU01/04H·ARA09/04A·ARA15/04A·SHI20/04H·VAN26/04A·FC 01/05H·LER09/05A·ALA16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.731.130.400.47
vs Stronger (17)0.351.060.501.620.220.56
vs Similar (13)0.850.461.000.570.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
FC Urartu's squad is €3m more valuable than BKMA's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
FC Urartu's defence is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
FU wins
0
Draws
0
BKM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Urartu vs BKMA · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/23ABKMA Vs FU0-2
04/11/22HFU Vs BKMA1-0
04/09/22ABKMA Vs FU1-4

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs FU0-4
08/05/23HFU Vs FC Noah1-0
02/05/23AVan Vs FU0-5
27/04/23HFU Vs Shirak3-1
22/04/23AArarat-Armenia Vs FU2-2
16/04/23AArarat Vs FU0-0
11/04/23HFU Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-3
02/04/23HFU Vs Alashkert1-0
16/03/23ABKMA Vs FU0-2
11/03/23HFU Vs Lernayin Artsakh3-0

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/23AAlashkert Vs BKM1-2
09/05/23HBKM Vs Lernayin Artsakh2-1
01/05/23AFC Noah Vs BKM1-2
26/04/23HBKM Vs Van5-1
20/04/23AShirak Vs BKM1-1
15/04/23AArarat-Armenia Vs BKM2-1
09/04/23HBKM Vs Ararat0-1
01/04/23APyunik Yerevan Vs BKM3-0
16/03/23HBKM Vs FC Urartu0-2
10/03/23HBKM Vs Alashkert1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.38
HomeWWLWW2.12
AwayWDDWW2.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %75%69%81%
AVG goals2.622.442.81
Over 1.5 %69%62%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %31%25%38%
Scored1.971.502.44
Conceded0.660.940.38
BTTS34%44%25%
Clean Sheet59%44%75%
Corners---
Cards---
BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW0.94
HomeDLLWW0.81
AwayLLDWW1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%19%25%
AVG goals2.412.812.00
Over 1.5 %62%69%56%
Over 2.5 %47%50%44%
Over 3.5 %22%31%12%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded1.411.691.12
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet12%0%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC UrartuFC Urartu3683
72%
2.3
6825+43
2.6
67%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3680
69%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.00.6
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3676
64%
2.1
7027+43
2.7
72%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.8
-
4AlashkertAlashkert3666
56%
1.8
5837+21
2.6
61%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.61.0
-
5VanVan3640
31%
1.1
3859-21
2.7
69%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
6AraratArarat3638
28%
1.1
2942-13
2.0
61%
36%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.81.2
-
7ShirakShirak3636
28%
1.0
2555-30
2.2
58%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
8BKMABKMA3632
19%
0.9
3653-17
2.5
64%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.5
-
9FC NoahFC Noah3632
22%
0.9
3466-32
2.8
75%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5340.91.8
-
10Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh3622
14%
0.6
1659-43
2.1
61%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.41.6
-
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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