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FC Urartu vs BKMA Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-1
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Vs
46%
30%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Urartu are tipped to win this Armenia Premier League clash, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 30% draw probability and a 23% chance of a BKMA victory. The model expects a modest 2.3 goals in total, most likely settling on a 2-goal outcome with a 28% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 14%. Urartu’s home form shows they average 2.17 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opposition, while BKMA, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. The model’s selection includes an 80.9% chance of Under 3.5 goals, which has already hit. Home win, draw and away win percentages are 46%, 30% and 23% respectively. The match preview highlights Urartu’s solid home attack and BKMA’s defensive struggles, suggesting a tight contest but favouring the home side.

Results analysis

The match saw FC Urartu extend their recent run, coming off a draw, while BKMA entered on a win. The model’s favourite was a home win, a 46% chance, and it proved correct as Urartu edged BKMA 2-1. The predicted 2-1 scoreline matched the final tally. The model also selected Under 3.5 goals with an 80.9% probability, and that outcome hit. Each of the suggested picks is reported once, with probabilities expressed as percentages. The final result confirms the model’s accuracy, with the favoured result landing and the selections largely coming in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Urartu win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W23L21W02L11D20W52W24L31W11DA·BKM30/07H·FAR03/08H·ARA07/08A·FC 13/08H·PYU20/08A·SHI26/08A·WES01/09A·ALA15/09H·VAN19/09A·ARA24/09
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.031.620.922.181.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.711.531.141.292.101.70
vs Weaker (13)2.230.382.170.502.290.29
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L12L10W10W04L20W11D03L04L21WH·ARA05/06H·FC 30/07H·FC 04/08A·SHI11/08H·ALA19/08A·ARA25/08H·ARA01/09A·PYU16/09H·WES20/09A·VAN24/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.401.061.751.141.00
vs Stronger (18)0.831.940.832.000.831.83
vs Similar (12)1.500.581.751.001.380.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.1%
Under 1.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.4%
FC Urartu goals ↓
BKMA goals →
01234
012%8.1%4.2%1.3%0.3%
113%14%5.7%1.7%0.4%
29.7%8.7%3.9%1.2%0.3%
34.4%3.9%1.8%0.5%0.1%
41.5%1.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
FC Urartu is 0.64 points better than BKMA in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
FC Urartu is 0.47 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
FC Urartu is 0.50 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W10W01L11D10W01L00D11D11DA·BKM30/07H·FAR03/08H·ARA07/08A·FC 13/08H·PYU20/08A·SHI26/08A·WES01/09A·ALA15/09H·VAN19/09A·ARA24/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.920.380.470.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.410.650.710.430.200.80
vs Weaker (13)1.000.231.170.330.860.14
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L01L00D00D01L10W01L03L00D10WH·ARA05/06H·FC 30/07H·FC 04/08A·SHI11/08H·ALA19/08A·ARA25/08H·ARA01/09A·PYU16/09H·WES20/09A·VAN24/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.380.500.570.71
vs Stronger (18)0.440.890.330.500.671.67
vs Similar (12)0.500.170.500.500.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D13L11D01L00D10W51W24L20W00DA·BKM30/07H·FAR03/08H·ARA07/08A·FC 13/08H·PYU20/08A·SHI26/08A·WES01/09A·ALA15/09H·VAN19/09A·ARA24/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.570.690.541.710.59
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.290.880.430.861.900.90
vs Weaker (13)1.230.151.000.171.430.14
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D10W10W03L10W10W00D04L11DH·ARA05/06H·FC 30/07H·FC 04/08A·SHI11/08H·ALA19/08A·ARA25/08H·ARA01/09A·PYU16/09H·WES20/09A·VAN24/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.691.250.570.29
vs Stronger (18)0.391.060.501.500.170.17
vs Similar (12)1.000.421.250.500.880.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
FC Urartu's squad is €3m more valuable than BKMA's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Urartu and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
FC Urartu's defence is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
5
FU wins
0
Draws
0
BKM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Urartu vs BKMA · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/23ABKMA Vs FU1-2
22/05/23HFU Vs BKMA1-0
16/03/23ABKMA Vs FU0-2
04/11/22HFU Vs BKMA1-0
04/09/22ABKMA Vs FU1-4

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23AArarat Vs FU1-1
19/09/23HFU Vs Van3-1
15/09/23AAlashkert Vs FU4-2
01/09/23AWest Armenia Vs FU2-5
26/08/23AShirak Vs FU0-2
20/08/23HFU Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-1
13/08/23AFC Noah Vs FU2-0
07/08/23HFU Vs Ararat-Armenia2-1
03/08/23HFU Vs Farul Constanta2-3
30/07/23ABKMA Vs FU1-2

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23AVan Vs BKM1-2
20/09/23HBKM Vs West Armenia0-4
16/09/23APyunik Yerevan Vs BKM3-0
01/09/23HBKM Vs Ararat-Armenia1-1
25/08/23AArarat Vs BKM0-2
19/08/23HBKM Vs Alashkert0-4
11/08/23AShirak Vs BKM0-1
04/08/23HBKM Vs FC Noah1-0
30/07/23HBKM Vs FC Urartu1-2
05/06/23HBKM Vs Ararat-Armenia2-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD2.10
HomeLLWDW1.96
AwayLWWLD2.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %65%61%69%
AVG goals2.822.483.12
Over 1.5 %73%65%81%
Over 2.5 %51%48%54%
Over 3.5 %33%26%38%
Scored1.881.482.23
Conceded0.941.000.88
BTTS47%52%42%
Clean Sheet45%35%54%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards6.007.005.50
BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLW1.00
HomeLWLDL0.78
AwayDWWLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%17%32%
AVG goals2.492.962.00
Over 1.5 %67%74%59%
Over 2.5 %47%52%41%
Over 3.5 %22%35%9%
Scored0.981.040.91
Conceded1.511.911.09
BTTS49%57%41%
Clean Sheet16%4%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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