FC Urartu are tipped to win the match, with a 59% chance of triumph, 25% for a draw and 16% for a Noah victory. The model expects a modest 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals (26% probability). The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.9% chance. Urartu, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Noah, on the road, average no goals scored and three conceded. The suggested selections are Over 1.5 goals at 75.5% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.3%. The recent form shows Urartu coming off a 1-1 draw with Alashkert, whereas Noah are on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Ararat 4-0. This blend of home advantage and Noah’s defensive frailties makes a home win the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
FC Urartu’s 3-1 win over FC Noah extended their recent form, coming off a draw to keep their winning momentum alive. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 59% probability, proved correct. The expected total of 2.7 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 (26% chance) were not realised, yet the match’s 4-goal tally was still within the model’s broader range. The model’s selections performed mixed: Over 1.5, with a 75.5% probability, hit, while Under 3.5, at 72.3%, missed. Overall, the model’s call was right, though some of its ancillary picks fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Urartu win✓ Hit
58.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.92
0.58
1.17
1.00
2.67
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.20
0.40
1.33
0.67
3.50
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.71
1.00
1.33
2.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
58% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.42
0.67
2.33
0.67
2.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
4.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
1.89
0.80
1.60
1.00
2.25
Clean sheet %
25% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
6.8%
3-1 ✓
5.8%
0-1
4.9%
FC Urartu goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
4.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.6%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.8%
5.8%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
FC Urartu is 1.42 points better than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (2.31 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
FC Urartu is 0.94 goals better than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
FC Urartu is 1.14 goals better than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.25
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.33
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
0.67
0.67
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
75% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.89
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
42% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
0.33
0.83
0.50
1.67
0.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
0.20
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
0.33
0.67
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
75% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.42
0.33
1.33
0.33
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
2.67
0.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
25% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
FC Urartu's squad is €7m less valuable than FC Noah's (€5m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
FC Urartu's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Alashkert
Van
Ararat
Shirak
BKMA
Lernayin Artsakh