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FC Urartu vs FC Noah Result & Analysis

Date: 29/09/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Vs
37%
30%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The match between FC Urartu and FC Noah is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but leaving plenty of room for a draw or an away triumph. The probabilities are 37% for Urartu, 30% for a draw and 33% for Noah, so the model’s pick is a home victory. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.1% chance. Urartu, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, while Noah, on the road, averages 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 75.9% probability and Over 1.5 with 72.4%. The recent form shows Urartu coming off a draw and Noah on a three-game winning streak, adding intrigue to a contest that could swing either way.

Results analysis

FC Urartu’s win over FC Noah extended their recent form, with the 2-1 victory coming after a draw that kept them on a solid run. The model had picked a Home win with a 37% probability and it proved correct. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections also performed well: Under 3.5 goals hit at 75.9%, and Over 1.5 goals hit at 72.4%. Every suggested pick was settled, and the probabilities were expressed as percentages. The prediction model delivered a largely accurate forecast, with the favoured result landing and the selections largely coming in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Urartu win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W15L02L00D31W30W20W20W12L12LH·TAL18/07A·BAN25/07H·BAN01/08H·PYU05/08H·ARA19/08A·ALA24/08H·GAN31/08A·SHI14/09H·WES18/09A·BKM25/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.271.441.060.931.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.291.591.501.301.002.00
vs Weaker (13)1.080.851.330.670.861.00
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D31W50W01L30W21W13L12L11D20WA·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09A·VAN19/09H·PYU24/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.900.802.460.691.470.88
vs Stronger (2)1.501.003.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.670.672.600.600.500.75
vs Weaker (19)2.050.842.290.711.920.92
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.0%
No
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
9.3%
0-1
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
FC Urartu goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
01234
09.5%8.7%6.0%2.4%0.7%
19.3%14%7.7%3.1%0.9%
26.8%8.3%5.0%2.0%0.6%
32.9%3.5%2.1%0.9%0.3%
40.9%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
FC Urartu is 0.53 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 2.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
FC Urartu is 1.00 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (2.07 vs 3.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
FC Urartu is 0.43 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 0.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L01L00D10W10W10W10W11D11DH·TAL18/07A·BAN25/07H·BAN01/08H·PYU05/08H·ARA19/08A·ALA24/08H·GAN31/08A·SHI14/09H·WES18/09A·BKM25/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.440.560.430.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.350.880.400.800.291.00
vs Weaker (13)0.540.310.500.170.570.43
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W00D10W10W02L00D10W00DA·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09A·VAN19/09H·PYU24/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.231.150.310.530.18
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.780.221.200.200.250.25
vs Weaker (19)0.840.211.140.290.670.17
Clean sheet %80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L01L00D21W20W10W10W01L01LH·TAL18/07A·BAN25/07H·BAN01/08H·PYU05/08H·ARA19/08A·ALA24/08H·GAN31/08A·SHI14/09H·WES18/09A·BKM25/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.631.000.500.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.940.711.100.500.711.00
vs Weaker (13)0.540.540.830.500.290.57
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W30W01L20W11D11D12L01L20WA·SLI01/08H·AEK06/08A·SHI11/08A·AEK15/08H·RUŽ20/08A·BKM25/08A·RUŽ29/08A·ARA15/09A·VAN19/09H·PYU24/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.571.310.380.940.71
vs Stronger (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.890.441.400.400.250.50
vs Weaker (19)1.210.631.140.431.250.75
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Matheus Aiás50%
Virgile Pinson17%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gustavo Sangaré60%
Eraldo Cinari33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan25%
Hélder Ferreira17%
Virgile Pinson0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Virgile Pinson33%
Gonçalo Silva20%
Gonçalo Gregório17%
Eraldo Cinari0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Matheus Aiás0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eraldo Cinari33%
Virgile Pinson33%
Matheus Aiás33%
Imran Oulad Omar17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Hélder Ferreira0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Gonçalo Gregório0%
Yan Eteki0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Artem Avanesyan0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Bryan Mendoza0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Aleksey Ploshchadnyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
FC Urartu's squad is €7m less valuable than FC Noah's (€5m vs €12m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Urartu's midfield is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
FC Urartu's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FU wins
1
Draws
2
FN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Urartu vs FC Noah · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/24HFU Vs FC Noah0-1
22/02/24AFC Noah Vs FU1-1
21/10/23HFU Vs FC Noah1-0
13/08/23AFC Noah Vs FU2-0
08/05/23HFU Vs FC Noah1-0
06/03/23AFC Noah Vs FU0-2
23/10/22HFU Vs FC Noah3-1
20/08/22AFC Noah Vs FU0-6

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/24ABKMA Vs FU2-1
18/09/24HFU Vs West Armenia1-2
14/09/24AShirak Vs FU0-2
31/08/24HFU Vs Gandzasar2-0
24/08/24AAlashkert Vs FU0-3
19/08/24HFU Vs Ararat-Armenia3-1
05/08/24HFU Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-0
01/08/24HFU Vs Baník Ostrava0-2
25/07/24ABaník Ostrava Vs FU5-1
18/07/24HFU Vs Tallinna Kalev2-0

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/24HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan2-0
19/09/24AVan Vs FN1-1
15/09/24AArarat Vs FN2-1
29/08/24ARužomberok Vs FN3-1
25/08/24ABKMA Vs FN1-2
20/08/24HFN Vs Ružomberok3-0
15/08/24AAEK Athens FC Vs FN1-0
11/08/24AShirak Vs FN0-5
06/08/24HFN Vs AEK Athens FC3-1
01/08/24ASliema Wanderers Vs FN0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.44
HomeLDWWL1.60
AwayWLWWL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.822.643.00
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.441.521.36
Conceded1.381.121.64
BTTS62%68%56%
Clean Sheet22%24%20%
Corners9.6712.008.50
Cards5.50-5.50
FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW2.18
HomeWWWWW2.71
AwayLWLLD1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%88%54%
AVG goals2.843.042.65
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored1.982.461.54
Conceded0.860.581.12
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet48%54%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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