FC Urartu are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 72% chance of a home win. Their recent 1-1 draw against Alashkert and a 1-0 win over Gandzasar show a solid form that the model rewards, while Gandzasar’s three-game losing streak and 0-3 loss to BKMA highlight a fragile away side. The prediction favours a 2-0 victory for Urartu, the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability, and the expected total of 3.1 goals suggests a fairly open match. Urartu average 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded at home against similar opponents, whereas Gandzasar average 1.57 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away, underscoring the home advantage. The model’s selections include an 81.7% probability of Over 1.5 goals and a 71.8% probability of a Home win. The home win percentage is 72%, the draw 19%, and the away win 10%.
Results analysis
FC Urartu finished 2-1 against Gandzasar (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 72%home win, 19% draw and 10% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (82%), Home win (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Urartu win✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
9.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.20
1.80
0.87
1.60
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.82
1.35
1.88
0.88
1.78
1.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
1.00
1.71
0.86
1.33
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
0.88
2.00
1.50
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
3.67
0.00
3.67
0.00
3.67
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.83
0.40
1.60
1.57
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.33
1.50
1.62
2.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
10.1%
3-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.4%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.2%
4-0
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
FC Urartu goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
2.7%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
10%
8.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.7%
7.2%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.6%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Urartu goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
FC Urartu is 1.72 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
FC Urartu is 1.60 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (2.07 vs 0.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
FC Urartu is 1.40 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.10 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.73
0.27
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.62
0.38
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.38
0.86
0.14
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.93
0.44
0.88
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.67
0.00
0.20
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.91
0.88
0.88
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.60
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.29
0.82
1.25
0.50
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.62
0.86
0.71
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.10
0.44
1.12
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.86
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.17
0.40
1.40
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
FC Urartu's squad is €3m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Urartu's attack is €1m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Urartu and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
FC Urartu's defence is €1m more valuable than Gandzasar's (€2m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Ararat-Armenia
Pyunik Yerevan
Van
BKMA
Shirak
Ararat
West Armenia
Alashkert