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FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

Date: 16/10/2022
Time: 12:15
Final 4-0
FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Vs
20%
20%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FC Vaduz win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
59.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W13L11D00D11D14L02L22D22D12LA·RAP25/08A·LAU28/08H·FC 04/09H·APO08/09A·NEU11/09A·AZ 15/09H·STA02/10A·DNI06/10A·FC 09/10H·DNI13/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.251.751.101.801.401.70
vs Stronger (8)1.752.251.752.251.752.25
vs Similar (12)0.921.420.671.501.171.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %15% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W12L22D40W33D21W20W22D22DH·FC 15/07A·NEU22/07H·LAU29/07A·FC 05/08A·BEL12/08H·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.401.801.802.401.00
vs Stronger (2)2.002.002.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (5)1.801.801.751.752.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.33--2.670.33
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%21%3%07%117%221%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.0%
Under 1.5
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.0%
Under 2.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.5%
Under 3.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.9%
No
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.1%
1-1
8.3%
1-3
7.3%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
0-3
5.3%
2-1
5.2%
2-3
5.0%
FC Vaduz goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
03.0%4.7%6.5%5.3%3.2%
12.4%8.3%9.1%7.3%4.4%
22.2%5.2%6.3%5.0%3.0%
31.0%2.4%2.9%2.3%1.4%
40.3%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Vaduz goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yverdon Sport
1.83
Lausanne
1.69
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67
FC Aarau
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.56
FC Thun
1.36
FC Schaffhausen
1.22
Bellinzona
1.03
FC Vaduz
1.03
Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.67
FC Vaduz is 0.56 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.94
Yverdon Sport
1.78
FC Aarau
1.75
FC WIL 1900
1.72
FC Thun
1.72
Lausanne
1.61
FC Vaduz
1.50
FC Schaffhausen
1.42
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.17
Bellinzona
1.06
FC Vaduz is 0.25 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.75).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lausanne
1.19
FC WIL 1900
1.44
Yverdon Sport
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Thun
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.56
FC Aarau
1.58
FC Schaffhausen
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
Bellinzona
1.97
FC Vaduz is 0.03 goals better than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W00D01L11D01L11D02L11DA·RAP25/08A·LAU28/08H·FC 04/09H·APO08/09A·NEU11/09A·AZ 15/09H·STA02/10A·DNI06/10A·FC 09/10H·DNI13/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.450.750.400.700.500.80
vs Stronger (8)0.750.750.500.751.000.75
vs Similar (12)0.250.750.330.670.170.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L00D10W12L20W10W00D01LH·FC 15/07A·NEU22/07H·LAU29/07A·FC 05/08A·BEL12/08H·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.500.800.800.600.20
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.601.000.750.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.33--1.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L01L00D10W03L01L11D20W01LA·RAP25/08A·LAU28/08H·FC 04/09H·APO08/09A·NEU11/09A·AZ 15/09H·STA02/10A·DNI06/10A·FC 09/10H·DNI13/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.000.701.100.900.90
vs Stronger (8)1.001.501.251.500.751.50
vs Similar (12)0.670.670.330.831.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D22D30W21W01L10W22D21WH·FC 15/07A·NEU22/07H·LAU29/07A·FC 05/08A·BEL12/08H·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.901.001.001.800.80
vs Stronger (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
vs Similar (5)1.001.200.751.002.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.670.00--1.670.00
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vaduz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Vaduz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vaduz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.0%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Vaduz
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elmin Rastoder25%
Anthony Goelzer17%
Cedric Gasser17%
Fabio Fehr14%
Dario Ulrich12%
Tunahan Çiçek12%
Nicolas Hasler12%
Kristijan DobraÅĄ0%
Arbenit Xhemajli0%
Gabriel Isik0%
Benjamin BÞchel0%
Milan Gajić0%
Manuel Sutter0%
Merlin Hadzi0%
Anes Omerovic0%
Lars Traber0%
Dejan Djokic0%
Franklin Sasere0%
Ryan Fosso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anes Omerovic50%
Manuel Sutter43%
Franklin Sasere43%
Ryan Fosso38%
Merlin Hadzi25%
Dejan Djokic17%
Kristijan DobraÅĄ14%
Gabriel Isik14%
Dario Ulrich12%
Tunahan Çiçek12%
Arbenit Xhemajli0%
Anthony Goelzer0%
Cedric Gasser0%
Benjamin BÞchel0%
Milan Gajić0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Lars Traber0%
Fabio Fehr0%
Elmin Rastoder0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fabio Fehr29%
Milan Gajić14%
Dario Ulrich12%
Tunahan Çiçek12%
Kristijan DobraÅĄ0%
Arbenit Xhemajli0%
Anthony Goelzer0%
Gabriel Isik0%
Cedric Gasser0%
Benjamin BÞchel0%
Manuel Sutter0%
Merlin Hadzi0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Anes Omerovic0%
Lars Traber0%
Dejan Djokic0%
Franklin Sasere0%
Elmin Rastoder0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fabio Fehr29%
Elmin Rastoder25%
Dejan Djokic17%
Manuel Sutter14%
Franklin Sasere14%
Ryan Fosso12%
Kristijan DobraÅĄ0%
Arbenit Xhemajli0%
Anthony Goelzer0%
Gabriel Isik0%
Cedric Gasser0%
Benjamin BÞchel0%
Milan Gajić0%
Merlin Hadzi0%
Dario Ulrich0%
Tunahan Çiçek0%
Nicolas Hasler0%
Anes Omerovic0%
Lars Traber0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (23)
€27m
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
FC Vaduz and FC Aarau have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (8)
€9m
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
FW1 (9)
€1m
FC Vaduz and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC Vaduz's midfield is €1m more valuable than FC Aarau's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (10)
€13m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
FC Vaduz and FC Aarau have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
FV wins
1
Draws
0
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau · H/A from FV
DateH/AGameScore
15/07/22AFC Aarau Vs FV1-1

FC VaduzFC Vaduz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/10/22HFV Vs Dnipro-11-2
09/10/22AFC Schaffhausen Vs FV2-2
06/10/22ADnipro-1 Vs FV2-2
02/10/22HFV Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0-2
15/09/22AAZ Alkmaar Vs FV4-1
11/09/22ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FV1-1
08/09/22HFV Vs Apollon Limassol0-0
04/09/22HFV Vs FC Schaffhausen1-1
28/08/22ALausanne Vs FV3-1
25/08/22ARapid Vienna Vs FV0-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/22HFA Vs FC Thun2-2
30/09/22AYverdon Sport Vs FA2-2
09/09/22AFC Schaffhausen Vs FA0-2
03/09/22HFA Vs FC WIL 19002-1
27/08/22HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-3
12/08/22ABellinzona Vs FA0-4
05/08/22AFC Thun Vs FA2-2
29/07/22HFA Vs Lausanne1-2
22/07/22ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FA1-2
15/07/22HFA Vs FC Vaduz1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Vaduz
FC Vaduz
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDDL0.90
HomeDDDLL0.50
AwayLDLDD1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%0%30%
AVG goals3.002.903.10
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %45%40%50%
Over 3.5 %40%30%50%
Scored1.251.101.40
Conceded1.751.801.70
BTTS70%70%70%
Clean Sheet15%10%20%
Corners10.1011.408.80
Cards5.566.504.80
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDD1.70
HomeDLDWD1.20
AwayWDWWD2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%20%60%
AVG goals3.503.603.40
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %80%80%80%
Over 3.5 %50%40%60%
Scored2.101.802.40
Conceded1.401.801.00
BTTS80%100%60%
Clean Sheet20%0%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3666
56%
1.8
6453+11
3.2
86%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.81.5
-
2LausanneLausanne3661
47%
1.7
5843+15
2.8
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
27
95131.61.2
-
3Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3660
47%
1.7
7053+17
3.4
86%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.91.5
-
4FC AarauFC Aarau3657
42%
1.6
6357+6
3.3
81%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.6
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003656
44%
1.6
6252+10
3.2
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.71.4
-
6FC ThunFC Thun3649
33%
1.4
6255+7
3.2
89%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.71.5
-
7FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3644
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
8FC VaduzFC Vaduz3637
19%
1.0
5456-2
3.1
81%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.51.6
-
9BellinzonaBellinzona3637
31%
1.0
3871-33
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.0
-
10Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3624
11%
0.7
4265-23
3.0
89%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.8
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Switzerland: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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