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FC Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Result & Analysis

Date: 04/07/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Vs
38%
30%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives FC Vitebsk a 38% win probability against FC Dnepr Mogilev in the Belarus: Premier League on 2026-07-04, with 30% for the draw and 32% for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (77%), Over 1.5 (72%).

Results analysis

FC Vitebsk finished 1-0 against FC Dnepr Mogilev (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 38% home win, 30% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (77%). Missed: Over 1.5 (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Vitebsk win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L10W10W12L01L20W11D13L03LA·FC 15/09H·DIN20/09A·FC 27/09H·ARS04/10A·DIN17/10H·ML 26/10A·SMO01/11H·TOR09/11A·NEM22/11H·SLA29/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.531.201.271.271.80
vs Stronger (8)0.751.750.501.001.002.50
vs Similar (16)1.251.691.001.621.501.75
vs Weaker (6)1.830.832.670.671.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L12L00D21W31W31W00D02L12LA·OST20/09H·MIN27/09A·LID05/10H·LOK11/10A·SLO18/10H·BEL25/10H·BUM08/11A·DIN13/11H·ORS17/11A·BAT22/11
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.971.670.731.801.20
vs Stronger (3)1.001.000.500.002.003.00
vs Similar (19)1.631.051.671.001.601.10
vs Weaker (8)2.250.752.250.502.251.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.4%
Under 2.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
1-0 ✓
9.8%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
5.9%
FC Vitebsk goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
01234
09.9%8.8%5.9%2.3%0.7%
19.8%14%7.5%2.9%0.9%
27.1%8.3%4.8%1.9%0.5%
33.0%3.6%2.1%0.8%0.2%
41.0%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Vitebsk goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Belshina
1.50
Neman
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.31
Baranovichi
1.28
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Naftan
0.93
FC Vitebsk is 0.28 points worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.15
Baranovichi
1.12
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Belshina
0.50
FC Vitebsk is 0.09 goals better than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.30
Baranovichi
1.34
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
Naftan
1.83
FC Vitebsk is 0.23 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

60111152333113321206056145H·SLAA·NEMH·TORA·SMOA·DINH·ARSA·FC H·DINA·FC H·MOL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---2.92.92.8---
vs Stronger (12)---1.81.71.8---
vs Similar (29)---2.93.22.6---
vs Weaker (9)---4.14.04.2---
% over line---44%44%44%---
% under line---56%56%56%---
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---1.01.01.0---
vs Stronger (8)---0.80.51.0---
vs Similar (32)---1.41.41.4---
vs Weaker (10)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---10%8%12%---
% under line---90%92%88%---
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Bate Borisov
13.0
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Neman
7.3
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.0
FC Minsk
2.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Belshina
5.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Bate Borisov
3.5
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Minsk
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Bate Borisov
29.0
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.2%
Under 21.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (50)
€10m
DB (20)
€6m
TZ (20)
€3m
NEM (22)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€3m
DB (4)
€2m
NEM (7)
€1m
TZ (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€2m
TZ (8)
€2m
DB (4)
€1m
NEM (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (24)
€5m
DB (12)
€3m
TZ (9)
€1m
NEM (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

FC Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · H/A from FV
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/24HFV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev2-1
23/06/24AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs FV1-2
27/08/23AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs FV0-0
22/04/23HFV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev0-1
10/09/22AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs FV2-1
02/05/22HFV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev2-1

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25HFV Vs Slavia Mozyr0-3
22/11/25ANeman Vs FV3-1
09/11/25HFV Vs Torpedo Zhodino1-1
01/11/25ASmorgon Vs FV0-2
26/10/25HFV Vs ML Vitebsk0-1
17/10/25ADinamo Brest Vs FV2-1
04/10/25HFV Vs Arsenal (Belarus)1-0
27/09/25AFC Slutsk Vs FV0-1
20/09/25HFV Vs Dinamo Minsk1-2
15/09/25AFC Gomel Vs FV1-0

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25ABATE II Vs FDM2-1
17/11/25HFDM Vs Orsha0-2
13/11/25ADinamo Minsk II Vs FDM0-0
08/11/25HFDM Vs Bumprom3-1
25/10/25HFDM Vs Belshina3-1
18/10/25ASlonim Vs FDM1-2
11/10/25HFDM Vs Lokomotiv Gomel0-0
05/10/25ALida Vs FDM2-1
27/09/25HFDM Vs Minsk II0-1
20/09/25AOstrovets FC Vs FDM1-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLL1.22
HomeLWLDL1.36
AwayLWLWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.422.122.72
Over 1.5 %68%56%80%
Over 2.5 %50%40%60%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored1.161.081.24
Conceded1.261.041.48
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards3.113.133.09
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.54
HomeLDWWL1.58
AwayWLWDL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%46%42%
AVG goals2.962.853.08
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %64%58%71%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.541.541.54
Conceded1.421.311.54
BTTS64%54%75%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards3.403.253.57

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VitebskFC Vitebsk512
80%
2.4
61+5
1.4
20%
20%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
0
0001.20.2
-
2Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest49
75%
2.2
103+7
3.2
75%
75%
50%
11.3
100%
2.7
33%
29.3
100%
6
2132.50.8
-
3FC Isloch Minsk R.FC Isloch Minsk R.39
100%
3.0
84+4
4.0
100%
67%
33%
11.0
50%
4.0
50%
28.5
100%
0
0002.71.3
55%
4FC MinskFC Minsk49
75%
2.2
64+2
2.5
75%
75%
0%
8.0
0%
1.0
0%
21.5
50%
0
0001.51.0
37%
5Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr36
67%
2.0
75+2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
8.5
50%
2.5
50%
21.0
50%
0
0002.31.7
50%
6BaranovichiBaranovichi45
25%
1.2
77+0
3.5
75%
50%
50%
9.5
50%
4.0
50%
25.0
100%
0
0001.81.8
-
7FC GomelFC Gomel44
25%
1.0
73+4
2.5
50%
25%
25%
7.0
0%
2.0
0%
29.0
100%
0
0001.80.8
-
8Bate BorisovBate Borisov24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
24.0
100%
0
0001.51.0
50%
9NemanNeman44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
3
1110.81.0
63%
10NaftanNaftan34
33%
1.3
69-3
5.0
100%
100%
67%
11.0
50%
2.0
0%
22.0
50%
0
0002.03.0
-
11Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)53
20%
0.6
311-8
2.8
80%
80%
20%
9.7
33%
0.3
0%
18.3
33%
0
0000.62.2
44%
12BelshinaBelshina32
0%
0.7
26-4
2.7
100%
33%
33%
11.0
100%
1.5
0%
24.0
100%
0
0000.72.0
-
13FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
80%
60%
20%
10.3
67%
3.3
33%
23.0
67%
0
0001.02.0
-
14Dinamo MinskDinamo Minsk00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3250.00.0
56%
15ML VitebskML Vitebsk00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Torpedo ZhodinoTorpedo Zhodino30
0%
0.0
04-4
1.3
33%
0%
0%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
33.0
100%
3
0210.01.3
-
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →

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