This highly anticipated match between FC Vitebsk and Neman in the Belarus Premier League is finely balanced, with recent form telling a compelling story. FC Vitebsk has been on a 3-game winning run, but Neman has shown resilience, coming off a draw against FC Gomel. The model's selection is the away win, with a 36% probability, while the home win and draw probabilities stand at 33% and 31%, respectively.
The expected total goals are 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. Among the possible scorelines, 1-1 is the single most likely outcome, with a 14.5% probability. FC Vitebsk's home form has seen them average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Neman's away form has seen them average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, both against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Under 9.5 corners and Under 21.5 fouls, both with 100% probability, as well as Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.2% probability and no edge. The home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 36%.
FC Vitebsk's 1-0 victory over Neman marked the end of Neman's 4-game winning streak, with the away side coming off a defeat in their previous encounter. The win extends FC Vitebsk's run, having secured 4 consecutive wins. In a surprising turn of events, the pre-match favourite, Neman, failed to come through, with the model's selection, Away win, proving incorrect. The model had assigned a 36% probability of an Away win. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.2%. Under 9.5 corners and Under 21.5 fouls, the model's other selections, both missed their mark, with probabilities of 100% and 100% respectively.
FC Vitebsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 1.43 | 1.21 | 1.29 | 1.38 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.27 | 0.64 | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Neman goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 10% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 14% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
FC Vitebsk
Neman
FC Vitebsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 19.0 | - | 19.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 19.0 | - | 19.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | - | 0% | 42% | 40% | 44% | 0% | - | 0% |
| % under line | 100% | - | 100% | 58% | 60% | 56% | 100% | - | 100% |
Neman| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.0 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.5 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 20.5 | 25.0 | 16.0 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| % over line | 40% | 33% | 50% | 30% | 33% | 27% | 33% | 50% | 0% |
| % under line | 60% | 67% | 50% | 70% | 67% | 73% | 67% | 50% | 100% |
FC Vitebsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.50 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.42 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
FC Vitebsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.92 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Neman| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.50 | 1.14 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.91 | 0.52 | 1.09 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 90.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 79.2% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | +0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/06/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 31/08/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/04/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/11/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/07/22 | H | 2-2 |
FC Vitebsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/07/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 26/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 1-0 |
Neman| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/10/25 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 | Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 | Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 | FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 | Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 | ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 | Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 | Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 | Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 | Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 | Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 | Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |