The contest between FC Vitebsk and Slavia Mozyr feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are narrow. The probabilities are 36% for a Vitebsk victory, 30% for a draw and 34% for a Slavia win, so the most likely outcome is a home triumph. The average goal tally is 2.4, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 14.3%. Vitebsk, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Slavia, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards (88.8%), Under 3.5 (77.5%), Under 4.5 cards (77.0%), Under 25.5 fouls (76.7%), Over 1.5 (70.9%) and Over 19.5 fouls (70.5%). The recent form shows Vitebsk on a two-game winning run after a 2-0 win over Naftan, while Slavia come off a defeat, losing 0-1 to Neman. The match remains a tight affair, with the home side holding a slight edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, failed to materialise, with the final score 0-3 and an away win. The model had given the home side a 36% chance of victory, a 30% draw, and a 34% chance of an away triumph, yet its pick was wrong. The suggested selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 88.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 77.0%, and Over 1.5 at 70.9%. FC Vitebsk were on a two-game winning run before this match, while Slavia Mozyr entered after a defeat. The result was a clean-sheet away win that defied the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Vitebsk win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr win✓ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.47
1.29
1.14
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.42
1.42
1.08
1.29
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.13
1.75
0.94
1.57
1.36
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.75
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.65
1.04
1.79
0.93
1.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.2%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
FC Vitebsk goals ↓
Slavia Mozyr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.3%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.6%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.7%
8.0%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.8%
3.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Slavia Mozyr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
FC Vitebsk is 0.87 points worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
FC Vitebsk is 0.53 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
FC Vitebsk is 0.47 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Vitebsk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
For 9.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 13.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.9
3.0
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
1.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
3.1
3.2
2.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
44%
44%
44%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
56%
56%
56%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
13.0
13.0
-
3.2
3.5
2.8
29.0
29.0
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
2.0
3.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
13.0
13.0
-
3.3
3.6
3.0
29.0
29.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
44%
52%
36%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
56%
48%
64%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Bate Borisov
13.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Smorgon
8.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Neman
7.3
FC Minsk
2.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Bate Borisov
3.5
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
3.2
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.2
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Slutsk
2.9
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.6
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Smorgon
24.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.1%
Under 3.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.2%
Under 21.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.57
0.79
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.62
0.58
0.67
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.81
0.19
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.21
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.71
0.36
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.81
0.83
0.42
0.79
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.94
0.75
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.54
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
FC Vitebsk's squad is €1m less valuable than Slavia Mozyr's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
FC Vitebsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Vitebsk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Slavia Mozyr's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
FC Vitebsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ML Vitebsk
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina