The contest between FC Vitebsk and Torpedo Zhodino is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost even: a 34% chance of a Vitebsk victory, 31% for a draw and 35% for a Zhodino triumph. The expected total goals sit at 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. FC Vitebsk, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Torpedo Zhodino, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (91.8%), Over 19.5 fouls (91.2%) and Under 5.5 cards (91.1%). The recent form shows Vitebsk on a two-game winning run after a 2-0 win over Naftan, while Zhodino comes off a 4-2 victory against Arsenal (Belarus).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Vitebsk win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.07
1.07
1.12
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.26
1.17
1.00
1.20
1.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.56
1.12
1.36
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.61
1.33
1.22
1.11
2.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.91
0.91
1.86
1.00
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
FC Vitebsk goals ↓
Torpedo Zhodino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
6.8%
2.6%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.5%
7.5%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Torpedo Zhodino goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
FC Vitebsk is 1.90 points better than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Vitebsk is 0.62 goals better than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
FC Vitebsk is 1.52 goals better than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of goals conceded per game (0.14 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
FC Vitebsk is 8.5 percentage points worse than Torpedo Zhodino in terms of average possession (46% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Vitebsk
For 3.8 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torpedo Zhodino
For 6.8 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 16.0 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.0
10.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
20.2
23.5
17.0
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
1.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.8
9.0
10.5
2.8
2.9
2.7
20.2
23.5
17.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
38%
36%
40%
25%
50%
0%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
62%
64%
60%
75%
50%
100%
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
10.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
30.5
29.5
31.5
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
10.3
11.0
10.0
2.5
2.4
2.7
32.0
33.0
31.5
vs Weaker (15)
10.0
10.0
-
1.2
1.6
0.9
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
26%
24%
28%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
25%
0%
50%
74%
76%
72%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
60.1%
Under 9.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.5%
Under 21.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Vitebsk or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers FC Vitebsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk or Torpedo Zhodino
68.9%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers FC Vitebsk + Torpedo Zhodino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Torpedo Zhodino
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
31%
35%
covers Draw + Torpedo Zhodino
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Vitebsk, so a minus line means FC Vitebsk give that many goals of a start and Torpedo Zhodino receive them. At -1, FC Vitebsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Vitebsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Vitebsk)
FC Vitebsk -2
4.5%
Draw -2
9.9%
Torpedo Zhodino +2
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Vitebsk)
FC Vitebsk -1
14.4%
Draw -1
19.5%
Torpedo Zhodino +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Vitebsk)
FC Vitebsk +1
65.0%
Draw +1
19.9%
Torpedo Zhodino -1
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Vitebsk)
FC Vitebsk +2
84.9%
Draw +2
10.3%
Torpedo Zhodino -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.79
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.56
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.75
0.56
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.67
0.78
0.56
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.45
0.71
0.57
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.57
0.29
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.70
0.67
0.33
0.87
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Zhodino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Zhodino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.81
0.56
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.94
0.56
0.67
0.67
1.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.45
1.14
0.43
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Zhodino over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
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Over 8.5 corners
71.9%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
FC Vitebsk's squad is €2m less valuable than Torpedo Zhodino's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
FC Vitebsk and Torpedo Zhodino have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Vitebsk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Torpedo Zhodino's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FC Vitebsk's defence is €1m less valuable than Torpedo Zhodino's (€1m vs €2m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
ML Vitebsk
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)