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FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

Date: 13/11/2022
Time: 13:15
Final 6-1
FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Vs
60%
21%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC WIL 1900’s recent 2-2 draw against FC Aarau suggests a high-scoring encounter, and the model’s numbers back that narrative. The expected total of 3.5 goals, with a 22% chance of exactly three, points to a lively match. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 9.6% probability. Home advantage is clear: a 60% chance of victory, 21% for a draw, and 19% for an away win. FC WIL 1900 averages 3.25 goals scored and only one conceded at home against similar opposition, while FC Aarau concedes 2.67 and scores just one on the road. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, carries an 86.9% probability and was hit in the last game. All figures are presented exactly as the model provides.

Results analysis

The updated form shows FC WIL 1900 coming off a draw, while FC Aarau also ended their last match with a draw, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model predicted a home win with a 60% probability, and that call proved correct as FC WIL 1900 secured a 6-1 victory, a result that far exceeded the expected total of 3.5 goals. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 with an 86.9% chance, hit, confirming the model’s confidence in a prolific match. Overall, the favoured outcome and the key selection both materialised, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC WIL 1900 win✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✗ Miss
18.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L51W04L40W15L10W00D43W31WH·FC 26/08A·FC 03/09H·BEL11/09A·LAU30/09H·YVE08/10A·BEL15/10H·LAU18/10A·FC 23/10H·FC 28/10A·FC 04/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.332.710.711.251.88
vs Stronger (6)2.001.172.000.332.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.891.443.251.000.801.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D21W20W22D22D04L01L33D12L32WH·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10A·FC 16/10H·BEL19/10H·NEU23/10A·STA28/10H·YVE04/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.731.881.881.861.57
vs Stronger (2)2.002.002.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (8)1.622.122.001.801.002.67
vs Weaker (5)2.201.001.502.002.670.33
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.9%
Under 1.5
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.2%
Under 2.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.7%
No
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.2%
1-0
6.2%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
FC WIL 1900 goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
01234
04.0%3.0%2.3%0.9%0.3%
16.2%9.4%5.2%2.1%0.6%
27.9%9.6%5.8%2.4%0.7%
36.0%7.2%4.4%1.8%0.5%
43.3%4.1%2.5%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC WIL 1900 goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Yverdon Sport
1.83
Lausanne
1.69
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.67
FC Aarau
1.58
FC WIL 1900
1.56
FC Thun
1.36
FC Schaffhausen
1.22
Bellinzona
1.03
FC Vaduz
1.03
Neuchatel Xamax FC
0.67
FC WIL 1900 is 0.03 points worse than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.94
Yverdon Sport
1.78
FC Aarau
1.75
FC WIL 1900
1.72
FC Thun
1.72
Lausanne
1.61
FC Vaduz
1.50
FC Schaffhausen
1.42
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.17
Bellinzona
1.06
FC WIL 1900 is 0.03 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lausanne
1.19
FC WIL 1900
1.44
Yverdon Sport
1.47
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
1.47
FC Thun
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.56
FC Aarau
1.58
FC Schaffhausen
1.64
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.81
Bellinzona
1.97
FC WIL 1900 is 0.14 goals better than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.58).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L11D02L20W14L00D00D10W10WH·FC 26/08A·FC 03/09H·BEL11/09A·LAU30/09H·YVE08/10A·BEL15/10H·LAU18/10A·FC 23/10H·FC 28/10A·FC 04/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.671.000.140.881.12
vs Stronger (6)1.170.331.000.001.330.67
vs Similar (9)0.780.891.000.250.601.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W10W00D01L04L00D10W01L10WH·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10A·FC 16/10H·BEL19/10H·NEU23/10A·STA28/10H·YVE04/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.750.500.430.86
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (8)0.621.001.000.600.001.67
vs Weaker (5)0.800.200.500.001.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W40W02L20W01L10W00D33D21WH·FC 26/08A·FC 03/09H·BEL11/09A·LAU30/09H·YVE08/10A·BEL15/10H·LAU18/10A·FC 23/10H·FC 28/10A·FC 04/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.710.570.380.75
vs Stronger (6)0.830.831.000.330.671.33
vs Similar (9)1.110.562.250.750.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC AarauFC Aarau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L10W22D21W00D01L23L11D22DH·STA27/08H·FC 03/09A·FC 09/09A·YVE30/09H·FC 07/10A·FC 16/10H·BEL19/10H·NEU23/10A·STA28/10H·YVE04/11
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.071.121.381.430.71
vs Stronger (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
vs Similar (8)1.001.121.001.201.001.00
vs Weaker (5)1.400.801.002.001.670.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (23)
€27m
FT (25)
€17m
SL (24)
€6m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
YS (22)
€5m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
FC WIL 1900's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€5m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (8)
€9m
FT (7)
€4m
SL (9)
€3m
YS (10)
€3m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
FW1 (9)
€1m
FC WIL 1900 and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
SL (5)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
YS (3)
€1m
FC WIL 1900 and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAU (10)
€13m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
SL (10)
€2m
BEL (15)
€2m
YS (9)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
FC WIL 1900's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€2m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
FW1 wins
0
Draws
1
FA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau · H/A from FW1
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22AFC Aarau Vs FW12-1

FC WIL 1900FC WIL 1900

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/22AFC Thun Vs FW11-3
28/10/22HFW1 Vs FC Schaffhausen4-3
23/10/22AFC Vaduz Vs FW10-0
18/10/22HFW1 Vs Lausanne1-0
15/10/22ABellinzona Vs FW15-1
08/10/22HFW1 Vs Yverdon Sport4-0
30/09/22ALausanne Vs FW14-0
11/09/22HFW1 Vs Bellinzona5-1
03/09/22AFC Aarau Vs FW12-1
26/08/22HFW1 Vs FC Thun1-1

FC AarauFC Aarau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/22HFA Vs Yverdon Sport3-2
28/10/22AStade Lausanne-Ouchy Vs FA2-1
23/10/22HFA Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC3-3
19/10/22HFA Vs Bellinzona0-1
16/10/22AFC Vaduz Vs FA4-0
07/10/22HFA Vs FC Thun2-2
30/09/22AYverdon Sport Vs FA2-2
09/09/22AFC Schaffhausen Vs FA0-2
03/09/22HFA Vs FC WIL 19002-1
27/08/22HFA Vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC WIL 1900
FC WIL 1900
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW1.93
HomeDWWWW2.71
AwayLLLDW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%86%38%
AVG goals3.273.433.12
Over 1.5 %80%86%75%
Over 2.5 %60%43%75%
Over 3.5 %47%43%50%
Scored1.932.711.25
Conceded1.330.711.88
BTTS53%43%62%
Clean Sheet40%57%25%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Aarau
FC Aarau
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.40
HomeWDLDW1.25
AwayWWDLL1.57
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%25%43%
AVG goals3.603.753.43
Over 1.5 %93%88%100%
Over 2.5 %80%75%86%
Over 3.5 %53%50%57%
Scored1.871.881.86
Conceded1.731.881.57
BTTS73%88%57%
Clean Sheet13%0%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Yverdon SportYverdon Sport3666
56%
1.8
6453+11
3.2
86%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.81.5
-
2LausanneLausanne3661
47%
1.7
5843+15
2.8
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
27
95131.61.2
-
3Stade Lausanne-OuchyStade Lausanne-Ouchy3660
47%
1.7
7053+17
3.4
86%
67%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.91.5
-
4FC AarauFC Aarau3657
42%
1.6
6357+6
3.3
81%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.81.6
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003656
44%
1.6
6252+10
3.2
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.71.4
-
6FC ThunFC Thun3649
33%
1.4
6255+7
3.2
89%
64%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4581.71.5
-
7FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3644
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
8FC VaduzFC Vaduz3637
19%
1.0
5456-2
3.1
81%
50%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.51.6
-
9BellinzonaBellinzona3637
31%
1.0
3871-33
3.0
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.0
-
10Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3624
11%
0.7
4265-23
3.0
89%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.8
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

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