FC WIL 1900 vs FC Aarau Result & Analysis

The model sees FC WIL 1900 as the clear favourite, rating a 68% chance of a home win, a 18% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of an away win. This preference stems from the team’s strong home form: they average 3.12 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while FC Aarau, playing away, averages 1.17 goals scored and 3.33 conceded. The expected total goals for the match is 3.7, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, carrying a 9.2% probability. The suggested picks from the model are Over 1.5 goals at 89.5% and Over 2.5 goals at 72.2%. The match’s outcome is predicted as a home win, reflecting FC WIL 1900’s dominance at home and FC Aarau’s weaker away performance.

The upset came early, as FC WIL 1900 failed to convert a pre-match favourite into a win, losing 0-3 to FC Aarau. The model had picked a home win with a 68% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-3 confirmed an away victory. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 89.5% probability, and Over 2.5 also hit at 72.2%. The home side had been coming off a draw, while the away team had also drawn their previous match. The prediction of a 3-goal total was the most likely outcome at 21%, yet the actual tally fell short of the expected 3.7.