The model favours a home win, with a 48% chance for FC WIL 1900, 26% for a draw and 27% for an away victory. The average goal tally is 3.0, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% chance. FC WIL 1900, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 2.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while FC Aarau, on the road, averages 1.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.7% probability and a hit result. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides showing recent draws and similar form. The overall shape points to a tight contest, but the home side’s stronger scoring record gives them the edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FC Aarau snatched a 2-0 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite, a home win predicted at 48 percent. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed an away win. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 81.7 percent probability. FC WIL 1900 had been coming off a draw, their last five matches a string of two draws and three losses, while Aarau also finished on a draw and had a similar recent run. The match ended 0-2, a result that matched the away win prediction but not the model’s favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC WIL 1900 win✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC WIL 1900
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.79
1.21
1.69
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.56
0.50
1.50
1.20
1.60
vs Similar (21)
2.10
1.29
2.30
1.10
1.91
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.53
1.67
1.33
1.60
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.60
2.00
1.57
1.86
1.62
2.12
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
1.00
1.86
1.00
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
FC WIL 1900 goals ↓
FC Aarau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.1%
3.9%
1.7%
0.5%
1
7.4%
12%
6.9%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.5%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.4%
5.6%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.9%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC WIL 1900 goals (down), columns = FC Aarau goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
FC WIL 1900 is 0.03 points better than FC Aarau in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
FC WIL 1900 is 0.08 goals worse than FC Aarau in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
FC WIL 1900 is 0.19 goals better than FC Aarau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC WIL 1900
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.71
0.43
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.67
0.25
0.50
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.52
0.90
0.40
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.07
0.43
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.42
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC WIL 1900
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.07
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.25
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.76
1.40
0.70
1.09
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Aarau) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Aarau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.93
0.73
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.93
1.14
1.00
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC WIL 1900) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC WIL 1900 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Aarau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
FC WIL 1900's squad is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€5m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
FC WIL 1900 and FC Aarau have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
FC WIL 1900 and FC Aarau have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FC WIL 1900's defence is €1m less valuable than FC Aarau's (€2m vs €3m).
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Sion
FC Thun
FC Vaduz
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Stade Nyonnais
Bellinzona
FC Schaffhausen
Baden