The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.4 goals, most likely totaling three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.5 % chance. Home side FCM Ungheni, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 3.38 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. Away side Iskra, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.17 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 41 % probability, while a home win stands at 34 % and a draw at 24 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.2 %), Under 6.5 (94.0 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (91.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8 %), Away under 1.5 HT goals (91.3 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (89.1 %). Both teams have recently been on a two-game winning run, with FCM Ungheni’s last win 3-1 over Zimbru II and Iskra’s last 10-0 triumph over Spartanii Selemet.
Results analysis
The match saw Iskra extend their three-game winning streak, while FCM Ungheni struggled after a recent defeat. The final score was 2-3, confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which came through with a 41% probability. The model’s selection of the 3-goal total also proved correct, as the game finished with three goals. Every suggested pick was addressed: Under 7.5 hit at 97.6%; Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.1%; Under 6.5 hit at 94.1%; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 92.3%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.1%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.8%; Away under 2.5 2H goals missed at 91.4%; and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 89.2%. The model’s predictions largely aligned with the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCM Ungheni win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iskra win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
1.67
3.15
1.46
2.12
1.82
vs Stronger (26)
2.69
1.54
3.45
1.36
2.13
1.67
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.57
2.07
1.47
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.83
0.67
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.65
2.05
2.22
2.00
1.18
2.09
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.0%
No
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
8.6%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
5.1%
0-1
4.9%
1-0
4.4%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Iskra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.9%
5.3%
3.2%
1.4%
1
4.4%
10%
8.6%
5.1%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.7%
7.0%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.3%
4.2%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
4
0.9%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Iskra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.11 points better than Iskra in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FCM Ungheni is 0.66 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.39 goals better than Iskra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FCM Ungheni or Draw✗ Miss
58.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
41%
covers FCM Ungheni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni or Iskra✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
41%
covers FCM Ungheni + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iskra✓ Hit
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
24%
41%
covers Draw + Iskra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FCM Ungheni, so a minus line means FCM Ungheni give that many goals of a start and Iskra receive them. At -1, FCM Ungheni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FCM Ungheni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FCM Ungheni)Actual: Iskra
FCM Ungheni -2
6.9%
Draw -2
10.4%
Iskra +2
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FCM Ungheni)Actual: Iskra
FCM Ungheni -1
17.3%
Draw -1
16.9%
Iskra +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FCM Ungheni)Actual: Draw
FCM Ungheni +1
58.6%
Draw +1
18.8%
Iskra -1
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FCM Ungheni)Actual: FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni +2
77.5%
Draw +2
12.7%
Iskra -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.73
1.86
0.71
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.54
0.77
2.00
0.67
1.14
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
0.83
0.17
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.10
1.11
1.22
0.73
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.0%
Under 0.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.00
1.36
0.79
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (26)
1.19
0.85
1.50
0.75
0.93
0.93
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Iskra) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iskra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.07
0.67
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.95
1.11
0.78
0.45
1.09
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.5%
Under 1.5
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.9%
Under 2.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iskra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →