FCM Ungheni are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 76 % chance of a home win. The prediction hinges on Ungheni’s strong home form - they are currently on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Zimbru II 3-1 - and on Spartanii Selemet’s poor away record, which shows an average of 0.83 goals scored and 3.33 conceded against similar opposition. The expected total is a high 5.2 goals, and the model most often projects a 6+ goal match, with a 41 % probability of exceeding that total. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 for the home side, with a 7.1 % chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 76 %, 13 % and 11 % respectively. Suggested picks include Home over 0.5 goals (97.4 %), Over 1.5 (96.8 %), Home +2 handicap (95.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2 %), Over 2.5 (88.9 %), Home or Draw (88.7 %), Home +1 handicap (88.7 %) and Home over 1.5 goals (87.9 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCM Ungheni win
76.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet win
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.77
3.07
1.57
2.06
1.94
vs Stronger (26)
2.65
1.65
3.33
1.50
2.07
1.79
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.80
1.29
2.64
0.94
2.94
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
3.64
1.17
4.17
0.88
3.25
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.08
1.40
1.00
0.86
2.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
1.33
2.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (41%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
96.8%
Under 1.5
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
88.9%
Under 2.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
75.8%
Under 3.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
76.3%
No
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
7.1%
4-1
6.5%
2-1
5.8%
3-2
5.4%
4-2
4.9%
5-1
4.7%
3-0
4.7%
2-2
4.4%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Spartanii Selemet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.9%
0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
1
1.8%
3.5%
2.4%
1.2%
0.5%
2
3.9%
5.8%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
3
4.7%
7.1%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
4
4.3%
6.5%
4.9%
2.5%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Spartanii Selemet goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.03 points worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FCM Ungheni is 0.06 goals better than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 2.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.18 goals worse than Spartanii Selemet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FCM Ungheni or Draw
88.9%
Avg Implied -
76%
13%
11%
covers FCM Ungheni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni or Spartanii Selemet
87.4%
Avg Implied -
76%
13%
11%
covers FCM Ungheni + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartanii Selemet
23.7%
Avg Implied -
76%
13%
11%
covers Draw + Spartanii Selemet
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5
Over
97.4%
Under
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5
Over
70.7%
Under
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FCM Ungheni, so a minus line means FCM Ungheni give that many goals of a start and Spartanii Selemet receive them. At -1, FCM Ungheni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FCM Ungheni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni -2
42.2%
Draw -2
18.0%
Spartanii Selemet +2
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni -1
60.2%
Draw -1
16.1%
Spartanii Selemet +1
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni +1
88.9%
Draw +1
6.5%
Spartanii Selemet -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.1%
Spartanii Selemet -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.80
1.79
0.86
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.50
0.85
1.92
0.83
1.14
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.40
0.64
1.43
0.25
1.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
2.07
0.67
2.67
0.12
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.83
0.60
0.40
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.9%
Under 2.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
70.6%
Under
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.29
0.71
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
0.81
1.42
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartanii Selemet) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartanii Selemet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.40
0.64
1.21
0.69
1.56
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.57
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.62
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.25
0.80
0.60
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.6%
Under 0.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.5%
Under 1.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartanii Selemet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FCM Ungheni's squad is €1m less valuable than Spartanii Selemet's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Spartanii Selemet have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Spartanii Selemet have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Spartanii Selemet have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Floreşti