FCM Ungheni and Univer Comrat are set to clash in Moldova: Liga 1 on August 15. Recent form suggests Univer Comrat is gaining momentum, having come off a 4-2 win against Zimbru II, while FCM Ungheni drew their last match 1-1 against Spartanii Selemet. The model predicts an away win for Univer Comrat, with a 46% probability of success.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 4.2 goals anticipated. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Univer Comrat, with a 7.6% probability. FCM Ungheni have been scoring at an average of 3.17 goals per home match, conceding 1.33. Univer Comrat, meanwhile, have scored 3 goals per away match against weaker opponents, conceding just 0.4.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 46% probability. Other suggested picks include Over 1.5 (92.6% chance), Over 2.5 (78.4%), and BTTS Yes (76.8%). The model predicts a 32% chance of a home win, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 46% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, FCM Ungheni has come from behind to win 6-2 against Univer Comrat, extending their winning run. The model's selection, Univer Comrat's win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 46%. The away team's recent form was coming off a defeat, but they were expected to capitalize on their stronger opponent strength at home. The model's call was incorrect, as Univer Comrat did not come through. The model's selection of Univer Comrat's win was the favourite, but it was not meant to be. The model's other suggestions, Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes, all hit, with probabilities of 92.6%, 78.4%, and 76.8% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCM Ungheni win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat win✗ Miss
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.3
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
1.67
2.86
1.43
2.06
1.88
vs Stronger (26)
2.54
1.54
3.08
1.33
2.07
1.71
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.76
2.00
1.87
2.00
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.89
1.40
1.40
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (16)
2.44
1.69
2.30
2.10
2.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
24% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.6%
Under 1.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.4%
Under 2.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.8%
No
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.6%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
5.7%
2-3
5.4%
3-2
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Univer Comrat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
2.9%
4.0%
3.0%
1.7%
1
2.3%
7.4%
7.6%
5.7%
3.3%
2
2.8%
6.3%
7.2%
5.4%
3.1%
3
1.8%
4.0%
4.5%
3.4%
1.9%
4
0.8%
1.9%
2.1%
1.6%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Univer Comrat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Spartanii Selemet
2.22
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.18 points better than Univer Comrat in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.89
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FCM Ungheni is 0.59 goals better than Univer Comrat in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.20
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.14 goals better than Univer Comrat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.68).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.70
1.57
0.64
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.35
0.73
1.67
0.58
1.07
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.75
1.00
0.71
0.70
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.60
1.44
0.78
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.29
0.79
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (26)
1.08
0.81
1.42
0.75
0.79
0.86
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Univer Comrat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Univer Comrat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.21
1.00
1.14
1.14
1.30
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.20
0.80
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
1.07
1.11
1.33
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Univer Comrat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
Oguzsport
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti