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FCM Ungheni vs Vulturii Cutezători Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-3
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Vs
65%
17%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vulturii Cutezători
Vulturii Cutezători
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FCM Ungheni is the clear favourite to win against Vulturii Cutezători, with a 65% chance of securing a home win. The model's high rating is largely due to the home side's strong form at home, where they have averaged 3.33 goals scored and just 1 goal conceded against weaker opponents. In contrast, Vulturii Cutezători have struggled on the road, scoring only 0.62 goals and conceding 3.62 goals against stronger opponents.

The expected total number of goals is 4.3, with a most likely total of 6 or more goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of FCM Ungheni, with a probability of 7.9%. The home side's home win percentage is 65%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 17%.

The model's selection is a home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 93.6% probability, Over 2.5 goals with a 80.9% probability, and BTTS Yes with a 73.6% probability.

Results analysis

The away team, Vulturii Cutezători, pulled off a stunning upset at FCM Ungheni's home turf, securing a 1-3 win and extending their run of form. This result comes as a surprise, as the pre-match favourite, FCM Ungheni, had a 65% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. In contrast, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes all hitting, having probabilities of 93.6%, 80.9%, and 73.6% respectively. The final score of 1-3 matches the model's most likely score of 2-1, which had a 7.9% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCM Ungheni win✗ Miss
65.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători win✓ Hit
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D21W40W42W32W62W34L51W42W45LH·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
5.6
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.633.141.432.001.81
vs Stronger (29)2.481.623.081.382.001.81
vs Similar (1)4.002.004.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L02L43W01L12L03L01L11D24L02LH·SHE22/11A·SAX30/11H·GAG07/12H·SPE07/03A·OLI15/03H·SHE28/03A·ISK04/04H·GAG12/04A·FCM18/04H·SPE26/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.052.731.002.251.103.30
vs Stronger (16)0.692.810.902.200.333.83
vs Similar (6)2.002.501.502.502.252.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %5% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%2%05%113%218%319%417%527%6+
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.6%
Under 1.5
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.9%
Under 2.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.1%
Under 3.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.6%
No
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-2
5.6%
4-1
5.4%
2-0
5.3%
3-0
5.0%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Vulturii Cutezători goals →
01234
01.8%1.4%1.4%0.7%0.3%
13.2%6.1%4.1%2.0%0.8%
25.3%7.9%5.9%2.9%1.1%
35.0%7.5%5.6%2.8%1.0%
43.6%5.4%4.0%2.0%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Vulturii Cutezători goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Spartanii Selemet
1.78
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.42 points better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.49).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.32
Univer Comrat
2.00
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FCM Ungheni is 0.64 goals better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 1.95).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.49
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.23 goals better than Vulturii Cutezători in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W20W31W20W21W13L40W11D30WH·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.831.570.641.061.00
vs Stronger (29)1.310.861.620.691.061.00
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D01L01L02L01L01L01L01LH·SHE22/11A·SAX30/11H·GAG07/12H·SPE07/03A·OLI15/03H·SHE28/03A·ISK04/04H·GAG12/04A·FCM18/04H·SPE26/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.000.361.090.380.88
vs Stronger (14)0.211.070.221.110.201.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.801.001.000.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %21% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D20W11D12L41W21W11D31W15LH·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04H·ZIM24/04H·VIC06/05A·FLO16/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.971.570.790.881.12
vs Stronger (29)1.140.931.460.690.881.12
vs Similar (1)3.002.003.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vulturii Cutezători) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L32W00D11D01L00D10W23L01LH·SHE22/11A·SAX30/11H·GAG07/12H·SPE07/03A·OLI15/03H·SHE28/03A·ISK04/04H·GAG12/04A·FCM18/04H·SPE26/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.260.640.910.621.75
vs Stronger (14)0.431.140.670.780.001.80
vs Similar (5)1.201.600.501.501.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vulturii Cutezători over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.593.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.580.9%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes73.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (50)
€1m
ZI (34)
€1m
FU (54)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
FU wins
0
Draws
0
VC wins

Head-to-head

FCM Ungheni vs Vulturii Cutezători · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HFU Vs Vulturii Cutezători4-2

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26AFloreşti Vs FU5-4
06/05/26HFU Vs Victoria Bardar4-2
24/04/26HFU Vs Zimbru II5-1
17/04/26AUniver Comrat Vs FU4-3
10/04/26HFU Vs Victoria Bardar6-2
04/04/26AOlimp Comrat Vs FU2-3
21/03/26AOguzsport Vs FU2-4
13/03/26HFU Vs Sheriff II4-0
07/03/26AFăleşti Vs FU1-2
21/11/25HFU Vs Floreşti1-1

Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HVC Vs Speranis Nisporeni0-2
18/04/25AFCM Ungheni Vs VC4-2
12/04/25HVC Vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport1-1
04/04/25AIskra Vs VC1-0
28/03/25HVC Vs Sheriff II0-3
15/03/25AOlimp Comrat Vs VC2-1
07/03/25HVC Vs Speranța Drochia0-1
07/12/24HVC Vs Gagauziya-Oguzsport4-3
30/11/24ASaxan Vs VC2-0
22/11/24HVC Vs Sheriff II0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.56
HomeDWWWW1.78
AwayWWWLL1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%41%
AVG goals4.384.784.04
Over 1.5 %92%100%85%
Over 2.5 %84%91%78%
Over 3.5 %70%83%59%
Scored2.382.782.04
Conceded2.002.002.00
BTTS80%87%74%
Clean Sheet12%9%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Vulturii Cutezători
Vulturii Cutezători
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.50
HomeWLLDL0.67
AwayWLLLL0.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%17%10%
AVG goals3.773.254.40
Over 1.5 %82%75%90%
Over 2.5 %64%50%80%
Over 3.5 %50%33%70%
Scored1.051.001.10
Conceded2.732.253.30
BTTS55%50%60%
Clean Sheet5%8%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători410
75%
2.5
157+8
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.81.8
-
2IskraIskra49
75%
2.2
154+11
4.8
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.81.0
-
3FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni47
50%
1.8
117+4
4.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
4OguzsportOguzsport47
50%
1.8
31+2
1.0
25%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.2
-
5FăleştiFăleşti37
67%
2.3
20+2
0.7
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.70.0
-
6FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
7Univer ComratUniver Comrat44
25%
1.0
913-4
5.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.23.2
-
8Zimbru IIZimbru II43
25%
0.8
89-1
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.02.2
-
9Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar33
33%
1.0
34-1
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
10FC National IaloveniFC National Ialoveni31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.3
-
11Spartanii SelemetSpartanii Selemet41
0%
0.2
321-18
6.0
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.85.2
-
12FloreştiFloreşti00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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