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FCM Ungheni vs Zimbru II Result & Analysis

Date: 24/04/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 5-1
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Vs
46%
22%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zimbru II
Zimbru II
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FCM Ungheni’s recent two-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over Zimbru II suggest a potent attack that will likely keep the scoreline high, with the model predicting a home win. The expected total goals sit at 4.0, and the most likely total is a 6+ result, giving a 21% chance of a high-scoring affair. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.1% probability, even though the overall match is expected to be more open. Home side FCM Ungheni averages 2.85 goals scored and 1.62 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Zimbru II, playing away against weaker opposition, averages 3.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 91.4%, Over 2.5 at 75.8%, and BTTS Yes at 74.8%. Home win probability is 46%, draw 22%, and away win 32%. The model’s pick remains a home win.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved spot on, with FCM Ungheni clinching a 5-1 home win over Zimbru II. The favoured outcome, Home win, was confirmed, and the model’s pre-match probability of 46 % was justified. The selections were largely correct: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 91.4 % chance, Over 2.5 goals hit at 75.8 %, and BTTS Yes hit at 74.8 %. The match also saw FCM Ungheni extend a two-game winning streak, while Zimbru II struggled after three straight defeats. The final score matched the model’s expectation of a decisive home victory.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FCM Ungheni win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W20W21W11D21W40W42W32W62W34LH·OGU24/10A·ZIM02/11A·VIC07/11H·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.271.802.851.621.821.94
vs Stronger (30)2.271.802.851.621.821.94
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zimbru IIZimbru II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W02L03L51W12L40W41W01L10W01LA·VIC24/10H·FCM02/11A·FLO07/11H·ISK21/11H·VIC06/03A·UNI13/03H·OLI20/03H·FĂL03/04A·SHE10/04H·OGU17/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.431.821.272.001.60
vs Stronger (12)1.921.422.201.201.711.57
vs Similar (6)1.831.001.501.002.501.00
vs Weaker (3)2.002.331.502.003.003.00
Clean sheet %19% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%06%116%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.4%
Under 1.5
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.8%
Under 2.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.1%
Under 3.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.8%
No
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.1%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
5.2%
2-0
4.4%
2-3
4.4%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
01234
02.6%2.7%3.1%1.9%0.9%
13.3%8.1%6.7%4.1%1.8%
24.4%8.0%7.2%4.4%2.0%
33.1%5.7%5.2%3.1%1.4%
41.7%3.1%2.8%1.7%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Sireți
2.33
Floreşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
Sheriff II
0.95
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Olimp Comrat
0.68
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.27 points better than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sireți
3.47
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Univer Comrat
2.00
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
Sheriff II
1.05
FCM Ungheni is 0.73 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Sireți
1.33
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Sheriff II
1.68
Univer Comrat
1.68
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Olimp Comrat
2.82
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.05 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W10W10W20W31W20W21W13LH·OGU24/10A·ZIM02/11A·VIC07/11H·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.931.210.710.941.12
vs Stronger (30)1.070.931.210.710.941.12
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zimbru IIZimbru II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L20W12L20W10W01L10W00DA·VIC24/10H·FCM02/11A·FLO07/11H·ISK21/11H·VIC06/03A·UNI13/03H·OLI20/03H·FĂL03/04A·SHE10/04H·OGU17/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.050.570.910.551.200.60
vs Stronger (12)1.000.581.200.600.860.57
vs Similar (6)0.670.170.250.251.500.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.331.501.003.002.00
Clean sheet %57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W11D01L11D20W11D12L41W21WH·OGU24/10A·ZIM02/11A·VIC07/11H·FLO21/11A·FĂL07/03H·SHE13/03A·OGU21/03A·OLI04/04H·VIC10/04A·UNI17/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.001.431.070.810.94
vs Stronger (30)1.101.001.431.070.810.94
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Zimbru IIZimbru II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L31W00D20W31W00D00D01LA·VIC24/10H·FCM02/11A·FLO07/11H·ISK21/11H·VIC06/03A·UNI13/03H·OLI20/03H·FĂL03/04A·SHE10/04H·OGU17/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.860.910.730.801.00
vs Stronger (12)0.920.831.000.600.861.00
vs Similar (6)1.170.831.250.751.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
Clean sheet %29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.575.8%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes74.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (22)
€1m
ZI (34)
€1m
FU (54)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Zimbru II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FU wins
1
Draws
1
ZI wins

Head-to-head

FCM Ungheni vs Zimbru II · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
02/11/25AZimbru II Vs FU0-2
19/09/25HFU Vs Zimbru II3-3
08/08/25AZimbru II Vs FU3-2

FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26AUniver Comrat Vs FU4-3
10/04/26HFU Vs Victoria Bardar6-2
04/04/26AOlimp Comrat Vs FU2-3
21/03/26AOguzsport Vs FU2-4
13/03/26HFU Vs Sheriff II4-0
07/03/26AFăleşti Vs FU1-2
21/11/25HFU Vs Floreşti1-1
07/11/25AVictoria Bardar Vs FU1-2
02/11/25AZimbru II Vs FU0-2
24/10/25HFU Vs Oguzsport3-0

Zimbru IIZimbru II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26HZI Vs Oguzsport0-1
10/04/26ASheriff II Vs ZI0-1
03/04/26HZI Vs Făleşti0-1
20/03/26HZI Vs Olimp Comrat4-1
13/03/26AUniver Comrat Vs ZI0-4
06/03/26HZI Vs Victoria Bardar1-2
21/11/25HZI Vs Iskra5-1
07/11/25AFloreşti Vs ZI3-0
02/11/25HZI Vs FCM Ungheni0-2
24/10/25AVictoria Bardar Vs ZI0-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.56
HomeWWDWW1.78
AwayWWWWL1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%41%
AVG goals4.144.523.81
Over 1.5 %92%100%85%
Over 2.5 %84%91%78%
Over 3.5 %64%74%56%
Scored2.222.611.89
Conceded1.921.911.93
BTTS76%83%70%
Clean Sheet14%13%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Zimbru II
Zimbru II
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.71
HomeWLWLL1.55
AwayWWLWW1.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%45%60%
AVG goals3.333.093.60
Over 1.5 %81%73%90%
Over 2.5 %76%64%90%
Over 3.5 %48%45%50%
Scored1.901.822.00
Conceded1.431.271.60
BTTS57%64%50%
Clean Sheet19%9%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni2242
59%
1.9
5734+23
4.1
91%
82%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.5
-
2FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1538
80%
2.5
4512+33
3.8
80%
67%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.8
-
3Univer ComratUniver Comrat2238
55%
1.7
4437+7
3.7
100%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.7
-
4Zimbru IIZimbru II2236
50%
1.6
4135+6
3.5
82%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
5SirețiSireți1535
73%
2.3
5220+32
4.8
93%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.51.3
-
6FloreştiFloreşti1531
60%
2.1
4313+30
3.7
80%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.90.9
-
7IskraIskra1527
53%
1.8
2929+0
3.9
80%
67%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.9
-
8Sheriff IISheriff II2221
23%
1.0
2337-14
2.7
73%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
9OguzsportOguzsport2219
18%
0.9
2436-12
2.7
82%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10FăleştiFăleşti2216
18%
0.7
2556-31
3.7
77%
64%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.5
-
11Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar2215
18%
0.7
2764-37
4.1
91%
82%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.9
-
12Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat2215
18%
0.7
2562-37
4.0
77%
59%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.8
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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