FCM Ungheni enter the match with a 47% chance of victory, 19% for a draw and 34% that Zimbru II will win, making a home win the model’s pick. The game is expected to see five goals on average, and the most likely total is 6 plus, with a 37% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-2, carrying a 6.6% chance. Ungheni have been prolific at home, scoring 3.33 goals per game and conceding 1.5 against stronger opposition, while Zimbru II, playing away against weaker teams, average only one goal scored and 3.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 96.2%, Home over 0.5 goals93.0%, Away over 0.5 goals89.8%, Under 7.5 at 87.2%, Over 2.5 at 87.1%, BTTS Yes84.0%, Home or Away80.9%, and Home +2 handicap80.7%. Both sides are coming off recent defeats, with Ungheni down 2-3 to Iskra and Zimbru II losing 1-5 to Vulturii Cutezători.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FCM Ungheni win
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FCM Ungheni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.5
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.77
3.07
1.57
2.06
1.94
vs Stronger (26)
2.65
1.65
3.33
1.50
2.07
1.79
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.85
1.81
1.86
1.36
1.85
2.31
vs Stronger (11)
2.36
1.45
2.40
1.60
2.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
2.00
1.38
2.00
0.80
2.00
2.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.75
1.00
3.75
Clean sheet %
19% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (37%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
96.2%
Under 1.5
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
87.1%
Under 2.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
72.8%
Under 3.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
84.0%
No
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.6%
3-2
5.8%
2-1
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
2-3
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
1-1
4.7%
3-3
4.5%
FCM Ungheni goals ↓
Zimbru II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.1%
1.2%
1.9%
1.4%
0.8%
1
1.5%
4.7%
4.9%
3.8%
2.2%
2
2.5%
5.8%
6.6%
5.0%
2.9%
3
2.2%
5.1%
5.8%
4.5%
2.5%
4
1.5%
3.4%
3.9%
3.0%
1.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FCM Ungheni goals (down), columns = Zimbru II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FCM Ungheni is 0.27 points better than Zimbru II in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FCM Ungheni is 0.73 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FCM Ungheni is 0.05 goals better than Zimbru II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FCM Ungheni or Draw
66.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
19%
34%
covers FCM Ungheni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni or Zimbru II
80.9%
Avg Implied -
47%
19%
34%
covers FCM Ungheni + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zimbru II
53.0%
Avg Implied -
47%
19%
34%
covers Draw + Zimbru II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5
Over
74.5%
Under
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 3.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5
Over
89.8%
Under
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 3.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FCM Ungheni, so a minus line means FCM Ungheni give that many goals of a start and Zimbru II receive them. At -1, FCM Ungheni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FCM Ungheni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni -2
16.4%
Draw -2
13.6%
Zimbru II +2
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni -1
29.9%
Draw -1
17.1%
Zimbru II +1
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni +1
66.1%
Draw +1
14.6%
Zimbru II -1
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FCM Ungheni)
FCM Ungheni +2
80.7%
Draw +2
10.0%
Zimbru II -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.80
1.79
0.86
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
1.50
0.85
1.92
0.83
1.14
0.86
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.89
0.79
0.57
1.00
1.23
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
0.40
0.20
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.50
0.75
0.75
0.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FCM Ungheni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.29
0.71
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (26)
1.15
0.81
1.42
0.67
0.93
0.93
vs Similar (4)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.93
1.07
0.79
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.82
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.83
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.75
1.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
26% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FCM Ungheni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FCM Ungheni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FCM Ungheni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 1.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (12)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Zimbru II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (1)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Zimbru II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
ZI (0)
€0m
FCM Ungheni and Zimbru II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti