Defensive solidity will shape the forecast, with Fehérvár FC’s home form showing a low 0.62 goals conceded per game, while Ajka’s away average of 1.33 goals conceded suggests a tighter contest. The model favours a home win, assigning Fehérvár a 45% chance, a draw 32%, and Ajka 23%. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a low-scoring affair, most likely 2 goals in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Fehérvár, with a 14.5% probability. Fehérvár’s average 1.25 goals scored at home against weaker opposition contrasts with Ajka’s 0.67 away goals scored against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.0%), Under 4.5 (94.1%), and Home +2 handicap (92.2%). The model’s selection reflects a tight, defensive match with Fehérvár likely to edge it 1-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fehérvár FC win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ajka win
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fehérvár FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.14
0.86
1.31
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.64
1.00
1.17
1.12
2.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.80
1.25
0.62
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.88
1.29
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.15
0.88
1.38
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fehérvár FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.0%
Under 2.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.1%
No
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%
1-1
14.2%
0-0
14.0%
2-0
9.8%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.3%
Fehérvár FC goals ↓
Ajka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.1%
4.3%
1.2%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
9.8%
8.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fehérvár FC goals (down), columns = Ajka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Kazincbarcikai
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Fehérvár FC is 1.20 points worse than Ajka in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.67
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.80
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Fehérvár FC is 0.10 goals worse than Ajka in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.83
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Fehérvár FC is 0.90 goals worse than Ajka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fehérvár FC or Draw
76.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Fehérvár FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC or Ajka
68.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Fehérvár FC + Ajka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ajka
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Draw + Ajka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fehérvár FC over/under 0.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fehérvár FC, so a minus line means Fehérvár FC give that many goals of a start and Ajka receive them. At -1, Fehérvár FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fehérvár FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fehérvár FC)
Fehérvár FC -2
7.2%
Draw -2
13.6%
Ajka +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fehérvár FC)
Fehérvár FC -1
20.9%
Draw -1
24.0%
Ajka +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fehérvár FC)
Fehérvár FC +1
76.8%
Draw +1
15.4%
Ajka -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fehérvár FC)
Fehérvár FC +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.9%
Ajka -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fehérvár FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.36
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.58
0.44
0.62
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Fehérvár FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fehérvár FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fehérvár FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.43
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
1.29
0.33
0.83
0.50
1.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.67
0.47
0.50
0.25
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.41
0.71
0.54
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.58
0.44
0.75
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Fehérvár FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fehérvár FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fehérvár FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fehérvár FC · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Šaponjić30%
Bálint Szabó24%
Patrik Kovács22%
Lirim Kastrati20%
Nejc Gradišar19%
Bence Babos17%
Tobias Christensen11%
Mátyás Katona10%
Zsolt Kalmár8%
Nicolás Stefanelli8%
Áron Csongvai6%
Filip Holender4%
Nikola Serafimov4%
Bogdan Melnyk4%
Csaba Spandler4%
Ivan Milićević0%
Bence Bedi0%
Balázs Tóth0%
András Huszti0%
Gergely Nagy0%
Szabolcs Schön0%
Kasper Larsen0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Aleksandre Kalandadze0%
Gergő Ominger0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Martin Dala0%
Kristian Šekularac0%
Márió Simut0%
Milán Pető0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ivan Šaponjić60%
Márió Simut40%
András Huszti38%
Szabolcs Schön33%
Kasper Larsen33%
Nikola Serafimov30%
Áron Csongvai28%
Bence Bedi25%
Aleksandre Kalandadze25%
Bogdan Melnyk23%
Lirim Kastrati20%
Csaba Spandler19%
Gergely Nagy17%
Filip Holender13%
Bálint Szabó12%
Mátyás Katona10%
Simeon Petrov9%
Ivan Milićević9%
Zsolt Kalmár8%
Nejc Gradišar6%
Milán Pető4%
Nicolás Stefanelli4%
Balázs Tóth0%
Tobias Christensen0%
Gergő Ominger0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Martin Dala0%
Kristian Šekularac0%
Bence Babos0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Milićević17%
Nejc Gradišar12%
Tobias Christensen11%
Áron Csongvai11%
Filip Holender9%
Nicolás Stefanelli8%
Mátyás Katona7%
Bálint Szabó6%
Márió Simut5%
Bence Bedi4%
Lirim Kastrati0%
Balázs Tóth0%
András Huszti0%
Csaba Spandler0%
Gergely Nagy0%
Bogdan Melnyk0%
Szabolcs Schön0%
Ivan Šaponjić0%
Kasper Larsen0%
Zsolt Kalmár0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Aleksandre Kalandadze0%
Gergő Ominger0%
Mátyás Kovács0%
Martin Dala0%
Kristian Šekularac0%
Bence Babos0%
Milán Pető0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Szabolcs Schön33%
Tobias Christensen33%
Nejc Gradišar12%
Áron Csongvai11%
Patrik Kovács11%
Ivan Šaponjić10%
Nicolás Stefanelli8%
Mátyás Katona7%
Mátyás Kovács5%
Filip Holender4%
Bence Bedi4%
Milán Pető4%
Bálint Szabó0%
Lirim Kastrati0%
Ivan Milićević0%
Balázs Tóth0%
András Huszti0%
Csaba Spandler0%
Gergely Nagy0%
Bogdan Melnyk0%
Kasper Larsen0%
Zsolt Kalmár0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Aleksandre Kalandadze0%
Gergő Ominger0%
Martin Dala0%
Kristian Šekularac0%
Márió Simut0%
Bence Babos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Fehérvár FC and Ajka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Fehérvár FC and Ajka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Fehérvár FC and Ajka have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Fehérvár FC and Ajka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Soroksar
Kecskeméti TE
Tiszakecske FC
Kazincbarcikai
Karcag SE
Gyirmot SE
Mezokovesd-zsory
Szentlőrinc SE
Szeged 2011
BVSC
Diosgyori VTK
Nagykanizsai ULE
Csakvar
Kozarmisleny FC