This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.10
1.13
1.07
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.78
1.00
1.60
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.81
1.20
0.80
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.6%
Under 2.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.7%
Under 3.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.1%
No
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.1%
1-0
11.9%
0-1 ✓
9.5%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.4%
Feirense goals ↓
Chaves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.5%
5.4%
1.8%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.1%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Feirense goals (down), columns = Chaves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Feirense is 0.06 points worse than Chaves in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Feirense is 0.15 goals worse than Chaves in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Feirense and Chaves are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Feirense is 5.9 percentage points worse than Chaves in terms of average possession (50% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Feirense
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 6.2 · Against 7.9 · Total 14.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
For 5.6 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Feirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.0
10.3
3.9
4.1
3.6
22.3
23.0
21.6
vs Stronger (11)
11.7
13.3
10.0
4.0
2.8
5.0
19.4
18.2
21.0
vs Similar (39)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.8
4.4
3.2
23.8
25.7
21.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
74%
75%
73%
58%
64%
52%
74%
71%
77%
% under line
26%
25%
27%
42%
36%
48%
26%
29%
23%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
8.6
11.7
4.0
3.6
4.5
21.5
21.9
21.0
vs Stronger (21)
10.5
9.3
11.5
5.0
3.8
6.2
23.4
25.0
22.2
vs Similar (29)
9.5
7.8
12.0
3.3
3.4
3.2
19.3
19.5
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
38%
75%
60%
56%
64%
71%
72%
69%
% under line
44%
62%
25%
40%
44%
36%
29%
28%
31%
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tondela
11.4
Torreense
11.0
Oliveirense
10.8
Portimonense
10.7
Feirense
10.6
Benfica B
10.3
FC Porto B
10.3
União de Leiria
10.2
Vizela
10.1
Chaves
9.9
Mafra
9.8
Leixoes
9.7
Penafiel
9.7
Academico Viseu
9.6
Pacos Ferreira
9.5
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Maritimo
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.1
Oliveirense
5.7
Maritimo
5.6
Chaves
5.5
Benfica B
5.5
Leixoes
5.4
Penafiel
5.2
Torreense
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Portimonense
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Tondela
4.9
Vizela
4.9
FC Porto B
4.6
Feirense
4.5
Academico Viseu
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
4.1
Alverca
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Leixoes
26.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Vizela
23.9
Pacos Ferreira
23.9
Tondela
23.2
Feirense
22.6
Oliveirense
22.1
Chaves
22.0
Maritimo
21.4
Torreense
20.8
União de Leiria
20.8
Portimonense
20.7
Mafra
20.7
Academico Viseu
20.6
Benfica B
20.6
Penafiel
20.5
FC Porto B
20.1
Alverca
7.9
Felgueiras 1932
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.9%
Under 9.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.1%
Under 3.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
2.2%
Under 21.5
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Feirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.80
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.71
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.39
0.77
0.31
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.78
0.60
0.80
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.52
0.30
0.40
0.27
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Feirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Feirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.87
0.33
0.20
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.20
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.48
0.92
0.31
0.00
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.29
0.90
0.40
0.91
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Feirense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Feirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Feirense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Ricardo33%
Leandro Antunes29%
Stivan Petkov14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diga0%
Jorge Pereira0%
Cristian Ponde0%
Ruben Alves0%
João Costa0%
Zidane Banjaqui0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Rentería33%
Lucas Cañizares33%
Tiago Ribeiro33%
Filipe Almeida33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Cristian Tassano17%
Diga14%
Stivan Petkov14%
Jorge Pereira14%
Leandro Antunes14%
Ruben Alves14%
Washington0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Bruno Silva0%
Cristian Ponde0%
João Costa0%
Zidane Banjaqui0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
João Castro0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Ponde33%
Leandro Antunes29%
Zidane Banjaqui25%
Ruben Alves14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Diga0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Jorge Pereira0%
João Costa0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zidane Banjaqui50%
Diga29%
Leandro Antunes14%
Washington0%
Carlos Rentería0%
Olamide Shodipo0%
Cristian Tassano0%
Bruno Silva0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Jorge Pereira0%
Cristian Ponde0%
Ruben Alves0%
João Costa0%
Zé Ricardo0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Lucas Cañizares0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Filipe Almeida0%
João Castro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Amine Rehmi0%
Chaves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pedro Tiba33%
André Ricardo33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Ruben Pina33%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Leandro Sanca0%
Ktatau0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ktatau33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Vozinha25%
Carraça25%
Bruno Rodrigues25%
Pedro Tiba0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Leandro Sanca0%
André Ricardo0%
Ruben Pina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Tiba33%
Leandro Sanca33%
Pedro Pinho33%
Carraça25%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Ruben Pina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Leandro Sanca67%
Ruben Pina67%
Wellington Carvalho25%
Vozinha0%
Pedro Tiba0%
Carraça0%
Vasco Fernandes0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
André Ricardo0%
Ktatau0%
Pedro Pinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Feirense's squad is €5m less valuable than Chaves's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Feirense's attack is €2m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Feirense's midfield is €2m less valuable than Chaves's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Feirense's defence is €1m less valuable than Chaves's (€3m vs €4m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses