Pythia gives Fenerbahçe a 63% win probability against Eyüpspor in the Turkey: Süper Lig on 2026-05-17, with 23% for the draw and 14% for Eyüpspor. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (92%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 3.5 cards (82%).
Results analysis
Fenerbahçe finished 3-3 against Eyüpspor (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 63% home win, 23% draw and 14% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (95%), Over 2.5 cards (92%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Over 3.5 cards (82%), Over 1.5 (79%). Missed: Over 23.5 fouls (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fenerbahçe win✗ Miss
63.3%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.23
Edge
-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 5.90
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor win✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.53
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fenerbahçe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.17
2.00
1.21
2.25
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.40
0.67
0.67
1.50
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.36
1.12
2.36
1.36
2.36
0.93
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eyüpspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
1.07
1.07
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.12
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
1.00
1.71
0.43
0.71
1.57
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.39-12.1%
Under 2.5
45.5%
@ 2.77+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%
1-1
10.8%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
4.2%
Fenerbahçe goals ↓
Eyüpspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
3.9%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
2
12%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.7%
6.6%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.9%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fenerbahçe goals (down), columns = Eyüpspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Fenerbahçe is 1.21 points better than Eyüpspor in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Fenerbahçe is 1.29 goals better than Eyüpspor in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Fenerbahçe is 0.32 goals better than Eyüpspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Fenerbahçe is 11.0 percentage points better than Eyüpspor in terms of average possession (59% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fenerbahçe
For 8.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 15.5 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eyüpspor
For 3.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 15.7 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fenerbahçe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.6
10.9
5.7
6.3
5.2
25.6
26.6
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
8.0
5.0
8.0
9.0
7.0
32.5
34.0
31.0
vs Similar (8)
10.4
11.8
9.0
6.9
7.0
6.8
28.2
31.5
25.0
vs Weaker (40)
11.0
10.5
11.6
5.4
6.0
4.8
24.8
25.2
24.4
% over line
62%
60%
64%
78%
88%
68%
72%
76%
68%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
22%
12%
32%
28%
24%
32%
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eyüpspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.6
9.5
4.6
4.3
5.0
25.8
25.0
26.8
vs Stronger (14)
9.4
7.9
11.3
3.6
3.2
4.2
24.0
24.0
24.0
vs Similar (14)
8.4
9.0
8.0
5.8
6.2
5.5
27.3
28.8
26.1
vs Weaker (22)
9.3
8.9
9.7
4.5
4.0
5.2
26.1
23.8
28.9
% over line
36%
31%
42%
64%
58%
71%
74%
73%
75%
% under line
64%
69%
58%
36%
42%
29%
26%
27%
25%
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.7
Kayserispor
10.0
Beşiktaş
9.9
Gaziantep FK
9.8
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.5
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Göztepe
9.1
Kasımpaşa
9.1
Eyüpspor
9.1
Galatasaray
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.7
Kocaelispor
8.0
Alanyaspor
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Kasımpaşa
5.2
Alanyaspor
5.1
Antalyaspor
5.1
Göztepe
5.1
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Başakşehir
4.9
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.7
Rizespor
4.7
Kocaelispor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Kayserispor
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Samsunspor
4.6
Fatih Karagümrük
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fatih Karagümrük
29.0
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Antalyaspor
27.1
Alanyaspor
26.9
Kocaelispor
26.7
Göztepe
26.7
Başakşehir
26.7
Rizespor
26.2
Eyüpspor
25.8
Trabzonspor
25.7
Fenerbahçe
25.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Kayserispor
25.4
Samsunspor
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.3
Konyaspor
25.2
Galatasaray
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.4%
Under 3.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.2%
Under 21.5
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.86
0.57
0.94
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.60
1.09
0.55
0.93
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eyüpspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.88
0.00
0.80
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.12
0.25
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.14
0.64
1.31
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.36
0.52
1.27
0.82
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Eyüpspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eyüpspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.60
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.00
0.67
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.71
1.14
0.43
0.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eyüpspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →