Fenerbahçe are the clear favorites, with a 60% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 15% chance of a Gençlerbirliği win. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Fenerbahçe, a 12.3% chance, reflecting the home side’s strong offensive output of 1.92 goals per game against weaker opposition and their tight defence conceding only 0.62. Gençlerbirliği, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.25 goals scored and concedes 2.0. The suggested picks are Over 1.5 goals at 74.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.8%. The home win probability is 60%, the draw 25%, and the away win 15%. Fenerbahçe’s recent form of WWWDL, including a 2-0 win over Samsunspor, and Gençlerbirliği’s DWWWL, after a 1-1 draw with Erzurumspor FK, set the stage for a likely 1-0 victory for the hosts.
Results analysis
The win extends Fenerbahçe’s three-game winning run, while Gençlerbirliği come off a draw. The final score was 2-1, confirming the home win that the model predicted with a 60% probability. The model’s favourite was correct. Its suggested selections - Over 1.5 goals at 74.1% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.8% - both hit. The most likely scoreline was 1-0 (12.3%) but the actual 2-1 result matched the model’s expectation of a 2-goal total. The match delivered on the predicted outcome and the key selections, reinforcing confidence in the model’s accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fenerbahçe win✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. win✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fenerbahçe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.77
1.87
0.60
1.67
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.85
0.73
1.92
0.62
1.77
0.85
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.20
0.67
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.80
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.39
0.94
1.33
0.56
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.3%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.8%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
7.1%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
4.9%
Fenerbahçe goals ↓
Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
4.9%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.3%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
7.1%
5.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.2%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fenerbahçe goals (down), columns = Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beşiktaş
2.32
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Konyaspor
1.94
Başakşehir
1.74
Osmanlispor
1.53
Galatasaray
1.50
Kasımpaşa
1.47
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.35
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.32
Antalyaspor
1.32
Bursaspor
1.29
Trabzonspor
1.18
Rizespor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.06
Kayserispor
1.00
Sivasspor
0.91
Eskisehirspor
0.88
Mersin Idman Yurdu
0.62
Fenerbahçe is 0.85 points better than Gençlerbirliği S.K. in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beşiktaş
2.21
Galatasaray
2.03
Fenerbahçe
1.76
Başakşehir
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.56
Osmanlispor
1.53
Kasımpaşa
1.47
Bursaspor
1.38
Konyaspor
1.29
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.24
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.24
Trabzonspor
1.18
Rizespor
1.15
Eskisehirspor
1.15
Sivasspor
1.00
Gaziantep FK
0.91
Mersin Idman Yurdu
0.91
Kayserispor
0.74
Fenerbahçe is 0.53 goals better than Gençlerbirliği S.K. in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fenerbahçe
0.79
Konyaspor
0.97
Beşiktaş
1.03
Başakşehir
1.06
Osmanlispor
1.06
Kasımpaşa
1.18
Akhisar Belediyespor
1.21
Kayserispor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.24
Sivasspor
1.41
Rizespor
1.41
Galatasaray
1.44
Gaziantep FK
1.47
Antalyaspor
1.53
Bursaspor
1.62
Trabzonspor
1.74
Eskisehirspor
1.88
Mersin Idman Yurdu
2.09
Fenerbahçe is 0.44 goals better than Gençlerbirliği S.K. in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fenerbahçe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Fenerbahçe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
1.00
0.13
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.19
1.00
0.15
0.69
0.23
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.53
0.20
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.11
0.80
0.20
0.25
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.28
0.33
0.22
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fenerbahçe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.00
0.54
0.92
0.46
1.08
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Gençlerbirliği S.K.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.67
0.47
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.22
0.20
0.60
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fenerbahçe · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi50%
Mason Greenwood38%
Marco Asensio17%
Archie Brown17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fred33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Nélson Semedo25%
Milan Škriniar25%
Romelu Lukaku25%
Mattéo Guendouzi25%
Dorgeles Nene25%
Archie Brown17%
N'Golo Kanté14%
Mason Greenwood12%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Mert Müldür0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Vedat Muriqi0%
Levent Mercan0%
Oğuz Aydın0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levent Mercan33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İrfan Can Kahveci20%
Marco Asensio17%
Vedat Muriqi17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
Archie Brown0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İsmail Yüksek17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Archie Brown0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adama Malouda Traoré33%
Sekou Koita33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Franco Tongya33%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Ousmane Diabate0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pereira33%
Dimitris Goutas33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Sekou Koita0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sekou Koita33%
Oğulcan Ülgün33%
Abdurrahim Dursun33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Žan Žužek0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sekou Koita33%
Franco Tongya33%
Ousmane Diabate33%
Adama Malouda Traoré0%
Pedro Pereira0%
Dimitris Goutas0%
Oğulcan Ülgün0%
İrfan Can Eğribayat0%
Abdurrahim Dursun0%
Žan Žužek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
RIZ (24)
€44m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
BUR (27)
€19m
ANT (25)
€16m
GS (19)
€15m
KAY (23)
€12m
SIV (26)
€10m
Fenerbahçe's squad is €318m more valuable than Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s (€332m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
BUR (10)
€10m
KAY (9)
€5m
ANT (8)
€5m
SIV (10)
€4m
GS (4)
€4m
Fenerbahçe's attack is €158m more valuable than Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s (€162m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
GF (5)
€8m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
BUR (5)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
ANT (6)
€4m
SIV (5)
€3m
KAY (4)
€2m
Fenerbahçe's midfield is €57m more valuable than Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s (€62m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
ANT (11)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
KAY (10)
€5m
BUR (12)
€4m
SIV (11)
€3m
Fenerbahçe's defence is €103m more valuable than Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s (€108m vs €5m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Beşiktaş
Konyaspor
Başakşehir
Galatasaray
Kasımpaşa
Antalyaspor
Bursaspor
Trabzonspor
Rizespor
Gaziantep FK
Kayserispor
Sivasspor
Eskisehirspor