Ferizaj are tipped to edge Trepça'89 in a tight contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds lean 53% for Ferizaj, 25% for a draw and 22% for the visitors, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The match is expected to see around three goals in total, yet the most likely total is two, a 23% chance that the scoreline will contain exactly two goals. The single most probable final score is 1-1, a 11.6% probability that the teams will finish level. Ferizaj, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Trepça'89, on the road, average 0.92 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 81.1% probability, suggesting a decent chance of a goal-rich game. Recent form shows Ferizaj coming off a defeat, while Trepça'89 remain unbeaten in their last five.
Results analysis
Ferizaj’s win over Trepça'89 continued a difficult run, with the home side coming off a defeat in their last match, while Trepça'89 remained unbeaten in their previous five outings. The final score was 1-0, a clear home win that matched the model’s pick of a home victory, which it had assigned a 53% probability to. The model had also forecast a total of 3.0 goals, but the match produced only one goal, far below the expected tally. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals at 81.1%; this selection missed, as the game finished under 1.5 goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ferizaj win✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.37
1.13
1.33
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.75
1.25
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.27
1.36
0.67
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.25
1.06
1.29
2.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
1.77
1.14
1.14
0.92
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.00
2.00
0.50
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Ferizaj goals ↓
Trepça'89 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.6%
3.3%
1.2%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.3%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferizaj goals (down), columns = Trepça'89 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ballkani
2.03
Drita
1.94
Gjilani
1.50
Dukagjini
1.39
Prishtina
1.33
Malisheva
1.28
Llapi
1.19
Ferizaj
1.14
Trepça'89
1.11
Liria Prizren
1.00
Drenica Skënderaj
0.64
Ferizaj is 0.02 points better than Trepça'89 in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Drita
1.75
Ballkani
1.72
Malisheva
1.44
Prishtina
1.28
Trepça'89
1.28
Llapi
1.22
Dukagjini
1.14
Gjilani
0.94
Ferizaj
0.84
Drenica Skënderaj
0.75
Liria Prizren
0.00
Ferizaj is 0.44 goals worse than Trepça'89 in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.00
Drita
0.86
Ballkani
0.89
Gjilani
0.94
Prishtina
1.00
Dukagjini
1.03
Ferizaj
1.35
Llapi
1.39
Malisheva
1.44
Trepça'89
1.72
Drenica Skënderaj
1.72
Ferizaj is 0.37 goals better than Trepça'89 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.36
0.46
0.23
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.43
0.67
0.22
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
68% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.54
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.54
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
54% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.86
0.62
0.54
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.75
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
39% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
1.25
0.79
0.79
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
1.38
0.75
0.83
0.58
1.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →