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Ferizaj vs Trepça'89 Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Ferizaj
Ferizaj
Vs
53%
25%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Trepça
Trepça'89
Kosovo: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ferizaj are tipped to edge Trepça'89 in a tight contest, with the model favouring a home win. The odds lean 53% for Ferizaj, 25% for a draw and 22% for the visitors, reflecting a clear but not overwhelming advantage. The match is expected to see around three goals in total, yet the most likely total is two, a 23% chance that the scoreline will contain exactly two goals. The single most probable final score is 1-1, a 11.6% probability that the teams will finish level. Ferizaj, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Trepça'89, on the road, average 0.92 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 81.1% probability, suggesting a decent chance of a goal-rich game. Recent form shows Ferizaj coming off a defeat, while Trepça'89 remain unbeaten in their last five.

Results analysis

Ferizaj’s win over Trepça'89 continued a difficult run, with the home side coming off a defeat in their last match, while Trepça'89 remained unbeaten in their previous five outings. The final score was 1-0, a clear home win that matched the model’s pick of a home victory, which it had assigned a 53% probability to. The model had also forecast a total of 3.0 goals, but the match produced only one goal, far below the expected tally. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals at 81.1%; this selection missed, as the game finished under 1.5 goals.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ferizaj win✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FerizajFerizaj

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W00D13L20W02L12L03L20W00DH·LLA08/03A·TRE11/03H·BAL19/03A·DUK02/04H·GJI09/04A·PRI15/04H·MAL22/04A·DRI29/04H·DRE03/05A·LLA07/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.371.131.330.531.40
vs Stronger (7)0.431.570.751.250.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.961.301.271.360.671.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrepçaTrepça'89

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-721W01L21W14L11D21W27L00D01L31WA·DRE08/03H·FER11/03H·DUK19/03A·PRI01/04A·DRI08/04H·LLA15/04A·BAL23/04H·GJI30/04A·MAL03/05H·DRE06/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.671.251.061.292.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.041.771.141.140.922.50
vs Weaker (4)2.751.002.000.503.501.50
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
0-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Ferizaj goals ↓
Trepça'89 goals →
01234
06.0%4.6%3.3%1.2%0.4%
18.2%12%6.0%2.3%0.7%
28.6%9.8%5.6%2.1%0.6%
35.3%6.1%3.5%1.3%0.4%
42.5%2.8%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ferizaj goals (down), columns = Trepça'89 goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ballkani
2.03
Drita
1.94
Gjilani
1.50
Dukagjini
1.39
Prishtina
1.33
Malisheva
1.28
Llapi
1.19
Ferizaj
1.14
Trepça'89
1.11
Liria Prizren
1.00
Drenica Skënderaj
0.64
Ferizaj is 0.02 points better than Trepça'89 in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Drita
1.75
Ballkani
1.72
Malisheva
1.44
Prishtina
1.28
Trepça'89
1.28
Llapi
1.22
Dukagjini
1.14
Gjilani
0.94
Ferizaj
0.84
Drenica Skënderaj
0.75
Liria Prizren
0.00
Ferizaj is 0.44 goals worse than Trepça'89 in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.00
Drita
0.86
Ballkani
0.89
Gjilani
0.94
Prishtina
1.00
Dukagjini
1.03
Ferizaj
1.35
Llapi
1.39
Malisheva
1.44
Trepça'89
1.72
Drenica Skënderaj
1.72
Ferizaj is 0.37 goals better than Trepça'89 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.72).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FerizajFerizaj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D11D10W01L01L00D00D00DA·DRE04/03H·LLA08/03H·BAL19/03A·DUK02/04H·GJI09/04A·PRI15/04H·MAL22/04A·DRI29/04H·DRE03/05A·LLA07/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.360.460.230.270.47
vs Stronger (7)0.000.140.000.250.000.00
vs Similar (21)0.480.430.670.220.330.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %68% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrepçaTrepça'89

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W10W11D01L03L00D01L20WH·MAL05/03A·DRE08/03H·DUK19/03A·PRI01/04A·DRI08/04H·LLA15/04A·BAL23/04H·GJI30/04A·MAL03/05H·DRE06/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.540.540.570.290.500.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.420.540.500.330.330.75
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.000.001.501.00
Clean sheet %54% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FerizajFerizaj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W00D02L10W01L11D03L20W00DA·DRE04/03H·LLA08/03H·BAL19/03A·DUK02/04H·GJI09/04A·PRI15/04H·MAL22/04A·DRI29/04H·DRE03/05A·LLA07/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.860.620.540.271.13
vs Stronger (7)0.431.430.751.000.002.00
vs Similar (21)0.430.670.560.330.330.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %39% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TrepçaTrepça'89

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D04L00D20W24L00D00D11DH·MAL05/03A·DRE08/03H·DUK19/03A·PRI01/04A·DRI08/04H·LLA15/04A·BAL23/04H·GJI30/04A·MAL03/05H·DRE06/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.791.250.790.790.791.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.671.380.750.830.581.92
vs Weaker (4)1.500.501.000.502.000.50
Clean sheet %36% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ferizaj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
DS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
DS (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
DS (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
FER wins
1
Draws
1
TRE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ferizaj vs Trepça'89 · H/A from FER
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/23ATrepça'89 Vs FER0-1
09/11/22HFER Vs Trepça'892-3
15/09/22ATrepça'89 Vs FER1-1

FerizajFerizaj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/23ALlapi Vs FER0-0
03/05/23HFER Vs Drenica Skënderaj2-0
29/04/23ADrita Vs FER3-0
22/04/23HFER Vs Malisheva1-2
15/04/23APrishtina Vs FER2-0
09/04/23HFER Vs Gjilani2-0
02/04/23ADukagjini Vs FER3-1
19/03/23HFER Vs Ballkani0-0
11/03/23ATrepça'89 Vs FER0-1
08/03/23HFER Vs Llapi2-1

TrepçaTrepça'89

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/23HTRE Vs Drenica Skënderaj3-1
03/05/23AMalisheva Vs TRE1-0
30/04/23HTRE Vs Gjilani0-0
23/04/23ABallkani Vs TRE7-2
15/04/23HTRE Vs Llapi2-1
08/04/23ADrita Vs TRE1-1
01/04/23APrishtina Vs TRE4-1
19/03/23HTRE Vs Dukagjini2-1
11/03/23HTRE Vs Ferizaj0-1
08/03/23ADrenica Skënderaj Vs TRE1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ferizaj
Ferizaj
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.06
HomeWDWLW1.50
AwayWLLLD0.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%38%12%
AVG goals2.272.312.24
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %42%44%41%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored0.851.060.65
Conceded1.421.251.59
BTTS48%50%47%
Clean Sheet30%38%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Trepça
Trepça'89
Kosovo: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.12
HomeLWWDW1.47
AwayWLDLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %27%35%19%
AVG goals3.032.413.69
Over 1.5 %73%65%81%
Over 2.5 %58%47%69%
Over 3.5 %39%24%56%
Scored1.301.291.31
Conceded1.731.122.38
BTTS61%53%69%
Clean Sheet15%29%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BallkaniBallkani3673
56%
2.0
6232+30
2.6
78%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.70.9
-
2DritaDrita3670
56%
1.9
6331+32
2.6
72%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.80.9
-
3GjilaniGjilani3654
36%
1.5
3434+0
1.9
56%
25%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.90.9
-
4DukagjiniDukagjini3650
39%
1.4
4137+4
2.2
58%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
5PrishtinaPrishtina3648
33%
1.3
4636+10
2.3
67%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
4121.31.0
-
6MalishevaMalisheva3646
33%
1.3
5252+0
2.9
72%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
7LlapiLlapi3643
31%
1.2
4450-6
2.6
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
8FerizajFerizaj3742
27%
1.1
3150-19
2.2
68%
41%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
9TrepçaTrepça'893640
28%
1.1
4662-16
3.0
72%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
10Drenica SkënderajDrenica Skënderaj3623
17%
0.6
2762-35
2.5
64%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.7
-
11Liria PrizrenLiria Prizren11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Kosovo: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →

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