Feronikeli will face a tough day as the model picks an away win for Malisheva, with a 57% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 18% for a home win. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.9% chance.
At home, Feronikeli has been a solid defensive side against stronger opposition, averaging 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. Malisheva, on the other hand, has been prolific on the road, netting 2.75 goals per game while conceding 1.75 against weaker teams. The recent form shows Feronikeli stumbling after two straight defeats, while Malisheva comes off a draw.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Away +2 handicap (93.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (93.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.8%), and Under 4.5 (85.7%).
Results analysis
After a run of three defeats, Feronikeli’s home form remained fragile as they fell 0-3 to Malisheva, who extended their winning streak. The model had tipped an away win with a 58% probability, and this call proved correct. The final score of 0-3 matched the predicted away victory. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.2%, Under 5.5 hit at 94.0%, and Away +2 handicap hit at 93.8%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and no other figures were repeated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Feronikeli win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Malisheva win✓ Hit
57.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Feronikeli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.67
1.93
0.60
1.47
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
1.67
0.83
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.82
0.59
2.20
0.60
1.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.27
1.86
1.21
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.19
1.80
1.50
1.27
0.91
vs Weaker (8)
2.38
1.12
2.00
0.50
2.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
0-2
10.7%
0-1
10.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
0-3 ✓
6.5%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.0%
Feronikeli goals ↓
Malisheva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
11%
11%
6.5%
3.0%
1
4.9%
12%
9.8%
6.0%
2.7%
2
2.7%
5.0%
4.5%
2.7%
1.3%
3
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.8%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Feronikeli goals (down), columns = Malisheva goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Feronikeli is 0.60 points worse than Malisheva in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Feronikeli is 0.64 goals worse than Malisheva in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Feronikeli is 0.29 goals worse than Malisheva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Feronikeli or Draw✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
25%
58%
covers Feronikeli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli or Malisheva✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
25%
58%
covers Feronikeli + Malisheva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Malisheva✓ Hit
82.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
25%
58%
covers Draw + Malisheva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Feronikeli, so a minus line means Feronikeli give that many goals of a start and Malisheva receive them. At -1, Feronikeli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Feronikeli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Feronikeli)Actual: Malisheva
Feronikeli -2
1.6%
Draw -2
4.6%
Malisheva +2
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Feronikeli)Actual: Malisheva
Feronikeli -1
6.2%
Draw -1
11.4%
Malisheva +1
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Feronikeli)Actual: Malisheva
Feronikeli +1
42.5%
Draw +1
23.7%
Malisheva -1
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Feronikeli)Actual: Malisheva
Feronikeli +2
66.1%
Draw +2
18.1%
Malisheva -2
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Feronikeli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.73
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.27
0.90
0.20
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.64
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.70
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.2%
Under 0.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.8%
Under 1.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Feronikeli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.13
0.40
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.32
1.20
0.40
0.92
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Malisheva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malisheva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.21
0.71
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.48
1.30
0.80
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Feronikeli) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
Under 0.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
52.4%
Under 1.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.3%
Under 2.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Feronikeli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Feronikeli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malisheva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Feronikeli's squad is €2m less valuable than Malisheva's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Feronikeli and Malisheva have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Feronikeli and Malisheva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Feronikeli's defence is €1m less valuable than Malisheva's (€1m vs €2m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →