SJK's recent form note is particularly interesting, as they're coming off a draw after a streak of losses. However, their away scoring and conceding numbers against similar opponents are impressive, averaging 2.55 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. This is a stark contrast to FF Jaro's home form, where they've averaged just 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against similar opponents. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely score of 1-1.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 42% chance of occurring. FF Jaro's home win percentage is 33%, while the draw percentage is 25%. SJK's away win percentage is 42%. The model's selection of the away win is also reflected in the suggested picks, with Over 1.5 goals being the model's selection with an 84.6% probability.
Results analysis
The home team, FF Jaro, pulled off a stunning upset, winning 2-1 against the pre-match favourite, SJK, whose 42% win probability was not enough to secure victory. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, as the home team's recent form, marked by two straight defeats, was not enough to prevent the upset. The model's call was wrong. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.6%, as the final score indeed featured more than one goal.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FF Jaro win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SJK win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FF Jaro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.90
1.36
1.79
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
2.71
1.33
3.00
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.65
1.36
1.45
1.17
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.53
1.50
1.14
2.50
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.71
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (22)
2.23
1.55
1.50
1.30
2.83
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.3%
No
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
8.8%
2-1 ✓
7.7%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
0-1
5.7%
1-3
5.1%
0-0
4.9%
FF Jaro goals ↓
SJK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
5.7%
5.8%
3.3%
1.4%
1
4.9%
11%
8.8%
5.1%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.7%
6.7%
3.9%
1.7%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.4%
2.0%
0.8%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FF Jaro goals (down), columns = SJK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
FF Jaro is 0.18 points worse than SJK in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
FF Jaro is 0.32 goals worse than SJK in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
FF Jaro is 0.50 goals worse than SJK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
FF Jaro is 3.4 percentage points worse than SJK in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FF Jaro
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SJK
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 7.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FF Jaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.8
1.3
1.7
1.0
18.4
18.9
17.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.3
9.0
13.0
0.9
1.5
0.5
17.0
20.0
11.0
vs Similar (39)
10.0
10.5
9.3
1.5
1.8
1.2
18.6
18.7
18.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
38%
16%
25%
8%
35%
33%
38%
% under line
55%
50%
62%
84%
75%
92%
65%
67%
62%
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
1.7
1.3
2.0
19.2
17.8
20.3
vs Stronger (13)
10.8
12.5
9.0
1.2
1.3
1.2
20.0
18.0
22.0
vs Similar (35)
10.1
9.4
10.5
1.9
1.5
2.3
19.1
17.7
20.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
56%
50%
26%
16%
36%
38%
22%
50%
% under line
48%
44%
50%
74%
84%
64%
62%
78%
50%
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
10.0
KuPS
10.0
Ilves
9.9
VPS
9.9
Lahti
9.8
AC Oulu
9.7
Turku PS
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
4.7
Lahti
4.5
Gnistan
4.0
Mariehamn
3.9
SJK
3.9
AC Oulu
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.4
FF Jaro
3.3
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.5
Lahti
23.1
Inter Turku
23.1
AC Oulu
22.8
Gnistan
22.5
Turku PS
22.4
VPS
22.4
Mariehamn
22.2
KuPS
21.7
HJK Helsinki
20.8
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.5%
Under 9.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
31.8%
Under 21.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FF Jaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.79
0.71
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.78
0.64
0.73
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.70
0.71
0.57
1.25
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.68
0.70
0.60
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FF Jaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.57
1.07
0.44
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.86
0.00
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.87
0.73
0.73
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
0.79
0.57
1.25
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.86
0.80
0.70
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FF Jaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Sjögrell38%
R. Vikström25%
Kaius Hardén17%
Fabian Östigard Ness17%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Vidjeskog50%
M. Ogungbaro29%
J. Skau25%
R. Vikström25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
V. Vuorinen12%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
H. Sjögrell0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Kaius Hardén0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Pedersen25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
H. Sjögrell12%
V. Vuorinen12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Kaius Hardén0%
R. Vikström0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Sjögrell38%
Kaius Hardén17%
R. Vikström12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
SJK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
E. Mastokangas25%
K. Paananen20%
O. Tessilimi20%
J. Streng0%
Rangel0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
A. Wilson0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. Yussif50%
O. Tessilimi40%
A. Boström33%
Rangel25%
K. Paananen20%
M. Arsalo17%
J. Streng0%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Wilson0%
Caio Araújo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Streng20%
Rangel0%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
K. Paananen0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
O. Tessilimi0%
A. Wilson0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Wilson33%
Rangel25%
J. Streng20%
K. Paananen20%
E. Mastokangas0%
Samuel Johansen Chukwudi0%
R. Paunio0%
J. Moisio0%
M. Arsalo0%
O. Väistö0%
A. Boström0%
O. Tessilimi0%
S. Yussif0%
Caio Araújo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
FF Jaro's squad is €2m less valuable than SJK's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
FF Jaro and SJK have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
FF Jaro and SJK have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
FF Jaro and SJK have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
Mariehamn