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Fgura United vs Santa Lucía Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 18:30
Final 2-0
Fgura United
Fgura United
Vs
48%
25%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fgura United win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W21W01L32W51W20W32W51W23L10WA·LIJ01/02A·SIR09/02H·ST.16/02A·GUD22/02H·ZEB02/03H·SEN09/03A·LIJ29/03H·SIR05/04A·MTA12/04A·ZEB14/09
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.001.531.071.400.93
vs Stronger (23)1.261.001.311.001.201.00
vs Similar (2)2.501.00--2.501.00
vs Weaker (5)2.001.003.001.501.330.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-753W31W36L00D11D33D31W03L22D70WH·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03H·MAR29/03H·VAL05/04A·SWI13/04H·MTA13/09
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.831.941.691.502.00
vs Stronger (2)1.003.50--1.003.50
vs Similar (21)1.811.482.001.621.501.25
vs Weaker (7)1.712.431.672.001.752.75
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.4%
1-2
6.9%
2-0 ✓
6.9%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.4%
3-1
5.8%
0-0
5.0%
Fgura United goals ↓
Santa Lucía goals →
01234
05.0%4.4%3.7%1.7%0.6%
16.4%11%6.9%3.1%1.1%
26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.3%5.8%4.0%1.8%0.6%
42.0%2.7%1.8%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fgura United goals (down), columns = Santa Lucía goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Fgura United is 0.09 points better than Santa Lucía in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Fgura United is 0.05 goals better than Santa Lucía in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Fgura United is 0.27 goals worse than Santa Lucía in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D00D30W00D10W10W31W01L10WA·LIJ01/02A·SIR09/02H·ST.16/02A·GUD22/02H·ZEB02/03H·SEN09/03A·LIJ29/03H·SIR05/04A·MTA12/04A·ZEB14/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.600.670.870.27
vs Stronger (23)0.610.520.690.620.500.40
vs Similar (2)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Weaker (5)0.800.400.001.001.330.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W22D00D00D01L10W01L10W50WH·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03H·MAR29/03H·VAL05/04A·SWI13/04H·MTA13/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.531.060.440.570.64
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.860.381.150.380.380.38
vs Weaker (7)1.000.860.670.671.251.00
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D10W01L02L51W10W22D20W22D00DA·LIJ01/02A·SIR09/02H·ST.16/02A·GUD22/02H·ZEB02/03H·SEN09/03A·LIJ29/03H·SIR05/04A·MTA12/04A·ZEB14/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.930.400.530.67
vs Stronger (23)0.650.480.620.380.700.60
vs Similar (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
vs Weaker (5)1.200.603.000.500.000.67
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D21W14L00D11D32W21W02L12L20WH·MGA02/02A·SEN08/02H·ZUR15/02A·TAR22/02H·MGA02/03A·PIE09/03H·MAR29/03H·VAL05/04A·SWI13/04H·MTA13/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.300.881.250.931.36
vs Stronger (2)1.002.50--1.002.50
vs Similar (21)0.951.100.851.231.120.88
vs Weaker (7)0.711.571.001.330.501.75
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
FU wins
0
Draws
0
SL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Fgura United vs Santa Lucía · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
25/01/25HFU Vs Santa Lucía5-1

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25AZebbug Rangers Vs FU0-1
12/04/25AMtarfa Vs FU3-2
05/04/25HFU Vs Sirens5-1
29/03/25ALija Athletic Vs FU2-3
09/03/25HFU Vs Senglea Athletic2-0
02/03/25HFU Vs Zebbug Rangers5-1
22/02/25AGudja United Vs FU2-3
16/02/25HFU Vs St. Andrews0-1
09/02/25ASirens Vs FU1-2
01/02/25ALija Athletic Vs FU0-1

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HSL Vs Mtarfa7-0
13/04/25ASwieqi United Vs SL2-2
05/04/25HSL Vs Valletta FC0-3
29/03/25HSL Vs Marsa3-1
09/03/25APietà Hotspurs Vs SL3-3
02/03/25HSL Vs Mgarr United1-1
22/02/25ATarxien Rainbows Vs SL0-0
15/02/25HSL Vs Zurrieq3-6
08/02/25ASenglea Athletic Vs SL1-3
02/02/25HSL Vs Mgarr United5-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Fgura United
Fgura United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.64
HomeWLWWW1.21
AwayWWWLW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%33%62%
AVG goals2.882.962.81
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %32%29%35%
Scored1.661.621.69
Conceded1.221.331.12
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet34%25%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDW1.30
HomeLDWLW1.40
AwayLWDDD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals3.062.963.16
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %60%48%72%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.381.401.36
Conceded1.681.561.80
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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