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Fgura United vs Santa Lucía Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 17:30
Fgura United
Fgura United
Vs
11%
15%
74%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model points to Santa Lucía as the clear favourite, with a 74% chance of victory, reflecting their strong away form against weaker opposition and the home side’s struggle to keep a clean sheet. The predicted outcome is an away win, and the most likely scoreline is 1-3, with an 8.2% probability. The expected total of 4.2 goals translates into a 25% chance of six or more goals, underscoring the high scoring potential.

Fgura United, playing at home, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.75 conceded against stronger teams, while Santa Lucía, on the road, scores only 0.67 and concedes 2.67 against weaker opponents. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Away +2 handicap (95.9%), Away over 0.5 goals (95.3%), Under 7.5 (93.4%), Over 1.5 (92.9%), Draw or Away (89.1%), Away +1 handicap (89.1%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.4%). The home win probability stands at 11%, the draw at 15%, and the away win at 74%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fgura United win
10.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía win
74.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L42W12L13L20W12L23L04L10W11DH·SIR01/02A·MGA07/02A·SWI15/02A·BIR22/02H·ST.01/03H·BAL10/03A·SIR15/03H·PIE04/04A·MEL11/04A·SWI19/04
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.602.141.642.061.56
vs Stronger (25)1.961.722.001.751.921.69
vs Similar (1)4.001.00--4.001.00
vs Weaker (4)2.501.003.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D10W12L11D21W11D01L11D30W51WH·MEL01/02A·BIR07/02A·ST.14/02H·ZEB21/02H·GUD28/02A·VIT08/03H·MAR14/03A·MGA06/04H·ZUR12/04A·MTA19/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.601.731.531.931.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)2.051.351.751.252.251.42
vs Weaker (10)1.402.101.711.860.672.67
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%2%05%114%218%319%416%525%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.9%
Under 1.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
79.4%
Under 2.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
61.0%
Under 3.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.5%
No
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-3
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
0-3
6.9%
0-2
6.8%
1-4
6.2%
1-1
5.8%
0-4
5.3%
2-3
4.8%
Fgura United goals ↓
Santa Lucía goals →
01234
02.0%3.9%6.8%6.9%5.3%
11.2%5.8%8.0%8.2%6.2%
21.0%3.1%4.7%4.8%3.7%
30.4%1.2%1.9%1.9%1.4%
40.1%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fgura United goals (down), columns = Santa Lucía goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Fgura United is 0.09 points better than Santa Lucía in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Fgura United is 0.05 goals better than Santa Lucía in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.82).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Fgura United is 0.27 goals worse than Santa Lucía in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fgura United or Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
11%
15%
74%
covers Fgura United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fgura United or Santa Lucía
85.2%
Avg Implied -
11%
15%
74%
covers Fgura United + Santa Lucía
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Santa Lucía
89.1%
Avg Implied -
11%
15%
74%
covers Draw + Santa Lucía
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fgura United over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5
Over
95.3%
Under
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5
Over
80.9%
Under
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 3.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Fgura United, so a minus line means Fgura United give that many goals of a start and Santa Lucía receive them. At -1, Fgura United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fgura United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fgura United)
Fgura United -2
1.2%
Draw -2
2.9%
Santa Lucía +2
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fgura United)
Fgura United -1
4.1%
Draw -1
6.8%
Santa Lucía +1
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fgura United)
Fgura United +1
25.7%
Draw +1
18.4%
Santa Lucía -1
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fgura United)
Fgura United +2
44.1%
Draw +2
19.6%
Santa Lucía -2
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W10W02L00D02L01L00D10W01LH·SIR01/02A·MGA07/02A·SWI15/02A·BIR22/02H·ST.01/03H·BAL10/03A·SIR15/03H·PIE04/04A·MEL11/04A·SWI19/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.640.710.940.50
vs Stronger (25)0.680.680.670.750.690.62
vs Similar (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Weaker (4)1.250.250.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D01L00D01L00D01L00D20W40WH·MEL01/02A·BIR07/02A·ST.14/02H·ZEB21/02H·GUD28/02A·VIT08/03H·MAR14/03A·MGA06/04H·ZUR12/04A·MTA19/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.570.800.600.670.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.800.550.880.380.750.67
vs Weaker (10)0.600.600.710.860.330.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L32W02L11D20W10W22D04L00D10WH·SIR01/02A·MGA07/02A·SWI15/02A·BIR22/02H·ST.01/03H·BAL10/03A·SIR15/03H·PIE04/04A·MEL11/04A·SWI19/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.001.500.931.121.06
vs Stronger (25)1.281.041.331.001.231.08
vs Similar (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Weaker (4)1.250.752.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Lucía) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W11D11D20W11D00D11D10W11DH·MEL01/02A·BIR07/02A·ST.14/02H·ZEB21/02H·GUD28/02A·VIT08/03H·MAR14/03A·MGA06/04H·ZUR12/04A·MTA19/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.030.930.931.271.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.250.800.880.881.500.75
vs Weaker (10)0.801.501.001.000.332.67
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fgura United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fgura United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Lucía over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Home under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Away +2 handicap95.9%-------
Away over 0.5 goals95.3%-------
Under 7.593.4%-------
Over 1.592.9%-------
Draw or Away89.1%-------
Away +1 handicap89.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals88.4%-------
Under 6.586.4%-------
Home or Away85.2%-------
Away over 1.5 goals80.9%-------
Over 2.579.4%-------
Under 5.574.8%-------
Away win74.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
FU wins
0
Draws
0
SL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Fgura United vs Santa Lucía · H/A from FU
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HFU Vs Santa Lucía2-0
25/01/25HFU Vs Santa Lucía5-1

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26ASwieqi United Vs FU1-1
11/04/26AMelita Vs FU0-1
04/04/26HFU Vs Pietà Hotspurs0-4
15/03/26ASirens Vs FU3-2
10/03/26HFU Vs Balzan FC1-2
01/03/26HFU Vs St. Andrews2-0
22/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs FU3-1
15/02/26ASwieqi United Vs FU2-1
07/02/26AMgarr United Vs FU2-4
01/02/26HFU Vs Sirens1-5

Santa LucíaSanta Lucía

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26AMtarfa Vs SL1-5
12/04/26HSL Vs Zurrieq3-0
06/04/26AMgarr United Vs SL1-1
14/03/26HSL Vs Marsa0-1
08/03/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs SL1-1
28/02/26HSL Vs Gudja United2-1
21/02/26HSL Vs Zebbug Rangers1-1
14/02/26ASt. Andrews Vs SL2-1
07/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs SL0-1
01/02/26HSL Vs Melita2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Fgura United
Fgura United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD1.52
HomeDLWLL1.08
AwayLLLWD1.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%29%58%
AVG goals3.003.172.85
Over 1.5 %74%83%65%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %34%29%38%
Scored1.681.711.65
Conceded1.321.461.19
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet28%21%35%
Corners---
Cards---
Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.40
HomeDDWLW1.46
AwayWLDDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%33%
AVG goals3.343.153.54
Over 1.5 %84%81%88%
Over 2.5 %62%58%67%
Over 3.5 %40%35%46%
Scored1.681.651.71
Conceded1.661.501.83
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AttardAttard00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2SirensSirens00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3Mgarr UnitedMgarr United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
5ZurrieqZurrieq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MelitaMelita00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12Fgura UnitedFgura United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Gudja UnitedGudja United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15Victoria HotspursVictoria Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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