Finn Harps are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model assigning a 42% chance of a home win, 30% for a draw and 27% for an away win. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.3% probability. Finn Harps, playing against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.44 goals scored and 0.44 conceded at home, while Bray Wanderers, in a similar away context, average only 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s single selection is “Under 3.5” with a 79.6% chance, and the edge is 79.6%. The match is expected to be competitive, but the home side’s recent five losses and a 4-5 defeat to UCD hint at a challenging start. Bray Wanderers’ recent form shows two defeats followed by a win, but their away scoring remains low. The overall shape suggests a tight contest with Finn Harps the favourite.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Finn Harps, the pre-match favourite, failed to break a five-game losing streak and were beaten 1-2 by Bray Wanderers. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its target with a 79.6% chance. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result of an away win. The home side’s recent form note highlighted a string of five defeats, while Bray Wanderers had two straight losses before a win. The prediction of a 2-goal total was the most likely, yet the match finished with three goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.33
0.73
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
1.33
1.17
1.17
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.89
1.44
0.44
0.22
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.37
1.73
1.20
1.27
1.53
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
1.54
1.50
2.00
1.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.14
1.88
0.75
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.5%
1-2 ✓
6.5%
0-2
5.0%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.6%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.5%
8.5%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.7%
3.7%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cork City
2.17
UCD
1.55
Athlone Town
1.54
Wexford
1.50
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.22
Treaty United
1.22
Longford Town
0.81
Kerry
0.75
Finn Harps is 0.13 points worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
1.78
Wexford
1.61
Bray Wanderers
1.49
Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.26
Longford Town
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.14
Treaty United
1.14
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.94
Finn Harps is 0.40 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cork City
0.64
UCD
1.03
Treaty United
1.19
Finn Harps
1.19
Bray Wanderers
1.28
Athlone Town
1.31
Wexford
1.50
Kerry
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.56
Longford Town
1.78
Finn Harps is 0.09 goals better than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.39
0.56
0.22
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.87
0.80
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.67
1.67
0.29
0.71
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
1.12
0.25
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.50
0.89
0.22
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.38
0.83
0.33
0.86
0.43
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Wexford
Treaty United
Cobh Ramblers
Longford Town
Kerry