Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win at 38%. The expected total is three goals, but the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Finn Harps, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Bray Wanderers, away, average 1.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (83.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (82.0%), and Under 4.5 (81.9%). Finn Harps’ recent form shows five consecutive losses, last score 4-5 against UCD, while Bray Wanderers have two straight defeats, last score 1-2 against Athlone Town. The draw probability sits at 27%, and the away win probability at 35%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Finn Harps win
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.03
1.07
1.67
0.93
2.40
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.86
1.00
2.71
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.81
1.12
1.50
0.88
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.60
2.27
1.40
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (14)
1.71
1.57
2.00
1.29
1.43
1.86
vs Similar (13)
2.08
1.46
2.50
1.17
1.71
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
2.33
2.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Bray Wanderers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.2%
5.3%
2.6%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
8.2%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.6%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Bray Wanderers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Finn Harps is 1.29 points worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Finn Harps is 1.57 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Finn Harps is 1.57 goals worse than Bray Wanderers in terms of goals conceded per game (3.43 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Finn Harps or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Finn Harps + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps or Bray Wanderers
73.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Finn Harps + Bray Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bray Wanderers
61.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Bray Wanderers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Finn Harps, so a minus line means Finn Harps give that many goals of a start and Bray Wanderers receive them. At -1, Finn Harps must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Finn Harps win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -2
7.6%
Draw -2
11.7%
Bray Wanderers +2
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -1
19.3%
Draw -1
19.1%
Bray Wanderers +1
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +1
65.0%
Draw +1
18.1%
Bray Wanderers -1
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +2
83.1%
Draw +2
10.6%
Bray Wanderers -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.33
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.64
0.14
0.71
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (16)
0.56
1.12
0.50
1.00
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.07
0.86
0.71
0.86
1.43
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
0.67
0.83
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.73
0.80
0.33
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.64
0.86
1.14
0.43
2.14
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.47
0.67
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.50
1.14
0.57
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.62
1.83
0.33
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Bray Wanderers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Wexford