Finn Harps are tipped to win, with a 42% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 32% for a Cobh Ramblers win. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, a 12.5% probability. Finn Harps, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Cobh Ramblers, on the road to a similar side, average 1.6 goals scored but concede 2.2. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.3% chance. Finn Harps have suffered five straight defeats, most recently losing 4-5 to UCD, while Cobh Ramblers are coming off a 2-2 draw with Longford Town. The predicted outcome remains a home win, though the odds of a 1-1 draw and an over 1.5 are significant.
Results analysis
The upset came as Finn Harps, the pre-match favourite with a 42% chance of victory, failed to convert their home advantage, losing 0-1 to Cobh Ramblers. The model’s pick was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, had an 80.3% probability but missed, as the match produced only one goal. Finn Harps were on a five-game losing streak, while Cobh Ramblers had a draw in their previous outing. The model had projected a 2-goal total with a 24% chance for the 2-goal outcome, yet the game settled for a single goal.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.03
1.13
1.60
1.20
2.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
2.29
0.57
2.00
1.29
2.57
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.81
1.62
1.25
1.12
2.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.53
2.13
1.07
1.53
2.00
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
1.36
1.33
0.67
1.25
1.88
vs Similar (9)
2.33
1.78
3.25
1.25
1.60
2.20
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.57
2.20
1.40
2.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.2%
No
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.6%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1 ✓
6.0%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Cobh Ramblers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.0%
4.9%
2.2%
0.8%
1
7.2%
12%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
9.0%
6.1%
2.8%
0.9%
3
3.5%
4.7%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Cobh Ramblers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Cork City
2.17
UCD
1.55
Athlone Town
1.54
Wexford
1.50
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.22
Treaty United
1.22
Longford Town
0.81
Kerry
0.75
Finn Harps is 0.06 points better than Cobh Ramblers in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
1.78
Wexford
1.61
Bray Wanderers
1.49
Athlone Town
1.38
UCD
1.26
Longford Town
1.14
Cobh Ramblers
1.14
Treaty United
1.14
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.94
Finn Harps is 0.06 goals worse than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cork City
0.64
UCD
1.03
Treaty United
1.19
Finn Harps
1.19
Bray Wanderers
1.28
Athlone Town
1.31
Wexford
1.50
Kerry
1.53
Cobh Ramblers
1.56
Longford Town
1.78
Finn Harps is 0.36 goals better than Cobh Ramblers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.47
0.73
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.21
0.29
0.86
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.81
0.62
0.62
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
0.67
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.64
0.50
0.67
0.62
0.62
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.00
1.25
0.75
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.03
0.67
0.87
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.07
0.29
1.14
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
1.00
1.00
0.62
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cobh Ramblers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cobh Ramblers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.77
1.27
0.40
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.71
0.83
0.00
0.62
1.25
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.78
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.86
1.20
0.80
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cobh Ramblers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cobh Ramblers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Wexford
Bray Wanderers
Treaty United
Longford Town
Kerry