Finn Harps are looking to break their recent slump, having suffered five consecutive defeats, including a 0-5 thrashing against Bray Wanderers. Meanwhile, Cork City are on a high after a 3-1 win over Kerry. This matchup is expected to be an open affair, with an average of 3.2 goals anticipated, and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%.
Finn Harps have struggled at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.57, particularly against stronger opponents. Cork City, on the other hand, have averaged 1 goal scored and 2.29 conceded while away to weaker opponents. The model predicts a home win, with a 41% chance, while the away win probability stands at 33% and the draw at 26%.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 41% chance. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.5% probability, and this pick has been a hit. The model's other selections include the Away win, with a 33% chance, and the Draw, with a 26% chance.
Results analysis
Finn Harps' 5-game losing streak came to an end, but not in the way they would have liked, as they fell to a 0-3 defeat at home to Cork City. The actual result was an away win, a surprise given the home side's strong recent form and the fact that they were the pre-match favourite, with a 41% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. Cork City's suggested picks were vindicated, with the model correctly predicting an over 1.5 goals scored, which hit with an 83.5% probability. Finn Harps' recent struggles were highlighted by their 0-5 defeat to Bray Wanderers, while Cork City were on a 3-game winning run, having beaten Kerry 3-1.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Finn Harps winâ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.41
Edge
+31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
11.94
1xBet
11.20
10Bet
10.75
Marathonbet
10.75
Betfair
10.00
Drawâ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.91
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.10
Pinnacle
5.08
William Hil
5.00
Cork City winâ Hit
33.4%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Dafabet
1.28
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.67
1.27
1.53
0.93
1.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.95
1.70
1.00
1.50
0.90
1.90
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.83
1.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
2.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.93
1.14
1.36
0.81
2.44
vs Stronger (30)
0.97
1.93
1.14
1.36
0.81
2.44
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.17+5.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.14-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.75
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.2%
@ 1.59+3.7%
Under 2.5
38.8%
@ 2.16-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.9%
@ 2.44+1.5%
Under 3.5
61.1%
@ 1.46-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.58
10Bet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.0%
@ 2.00+18.5%
No
36.0%
@ 1.67-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
No
Unibet
1.79
William Hil
1.73
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 9.31+7.0%
2-1
8.8%@ 26.00+7.2%
1-2
7.9%@ 7.85+2.4%
2-2
6.6%@ 19.78+4.4%
1-0
6.0%@ 22.13+4.1%
2-0
5.9%@ 57.18+5.1%
0-0
5.3%@ 13.49+2.1%
0-1
5.3%@ 6.68-1.2%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Cork City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.3%
4.7%
2.3%
0.9%
1
6.0%
12%
7.9%
3.9%
1.5%
2
5.9%
8.8%
6.6%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.3%
4.9%
3.7%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.4%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Cork City goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
1.83
Longford Town
1.80
Bray Wanderers
1.80
Cork City
1.67
Treaty United
1.67
Athlone Town
1.67
Cobh Ramblers
1.50
UCD
1.33
Wexford
1.17
Finn Harps
0.00
Finn Harps is 1.67 points worse than Cork City in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.67).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bray Wanderers
2.80
Cork City
2.67
Longford Town
2.40
Kerry
2.17
UCD
1.83
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.17
Wexford
1.17
Cobh Ramblers
1.17
Finn Harps
0.33
Finn Harps is 2.33 goals worse than Cork City in terms of goals scored per game (0.33 vs 2.67).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Treaty United
1.17
Kerry
1.17
Cobh Ramblers
1.33
Longford Town
1.40
Bray Wanderers
1.40
Wexford
1.83
UCD
2.00
Cork City
2.33
Finn Harps
3.17
Finn Harps is 0.83 goals worse than Cork City in terms of goals conceded per game (3.17 vs 2.33).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.85
0.30
0.90
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.93
0.29
0.64
0.31
1.19
vs Stronger (30)
0.30
0.93
0.29
0.64
0.31
1.19
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+5.5%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 11. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (40)
€0m
FH (32)
€0m
TU (31)
€0m
BW (29)
€0m
CC (30)
€0m
KER (28)
€0m
AT (38)
€0m
Finn Harps and Cork City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Athlone Town
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Longford Town
Cobh Ramblers
UCD
Wexford