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Finn Harps vs Kerry Prediction & Stats

Date: 02/10/2026
Time: 18:45
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Vs
37%
26%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Finn Harps and Kerry face a finely balanced encounter, each holding a 37% chance to win while a draw sits at 26%. The model favours a home win, with an expected total of 3.1 goals and a 22% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.8% probability. Finn Harps, at home against a similarly-strength opponent, average 1.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Kerry, away, average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (95.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.5%), Under 5.5 (90.2%), Over 1.5 (83.1%), Away +2 handicap (81.6%), and Home +2 handicap (81.0%). Finn Harps have recently lost five straight matches, while Kerry come off a win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Finn Harps win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kerry win
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D34L01L12L03L05L05L13L45LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.031.071.670.932.40
vs Stronger (14)1.002.291.001.861.002.71
vs Similar (16)1.001.811.121.500.882.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D15L22D21W40W30W13L11D31WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.531.381.061.432.07
vs Stronger (24)1.381.711.231.151.552.36
vs Similar (6)1.500.832.000.671.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.7%
Under 2.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
5.8%
1-0
5.7%
0-0
5.4%
0-2
5.4%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Kerry goals →
01234
05.4%5.8%5.4%2.8%1.1%
15.7%12%8.4%4.4%1.7%
25.3%8.3%6.6%3.5%1.4%
32.8%4.3%3.4%1.8%0.7%
41.1%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Kerry goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Finn Harps is 2.00 points worse than Kerry in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Finn Harps is 1.43 goals worse than Kerry in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 2.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Finn Harps is 2.29 goals worse than Kerry in terms of goals conceded per game (3.43 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Finn Harps or Draw
62.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Finn Harps + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps or Kerry
74.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Finn Harps + Kerry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kerry
63.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
26%
37%
covers Draw + Kerry
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5
Over
79.3%
Under
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5
Over
46.7%
Under
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Finn Harps, so a minus line means Finn Harps give that many goals of a start and Kerry receive them. At -1, Finn Harps must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Finn Harps win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -2
7.3%
Draw -2
11.2%
Kerry +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -1
18.6%
Draw -1
18.3%
Kerry +1
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +1
62.7%
Draw +1
18.4%
Kerry -1
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +2
81.1%
Draw +2
11.4%
Kerry -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L13L01L12L00D01L02L03L21WA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.330.870.600.93
vs Stronger (14)0.360.640.140.710.570.57
vs Similar (16)0.561.120.501.000.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L11D21W10W30W10W01L10WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.470.810.310.640.64
vs Stronger (24)0.670.540.620.310.730.82
vs Similar (6)1.000.171.670.330.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W21W00D00D03L04L03L10W24LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.130.730.800.331.47
vs Stronger (14)0.641.640.861.140.432.14
vs Similar (16)0.440.690.620.500.250.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kerry) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KerryKerry

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L13L11D00D30W00D03L10W21WH·WEX10/10A·FIN13/10A·BRA17/10A·WEX10/07H·FIN24/07A·BRA31/07H·COB03/08A·COR07/08H·UCD21/08H·TRE28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.070.560.750.791.43
vs Stronger (24)0.711.170.620.850.821.55
vs Similar (6)0.500.670.330.330.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kerry over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Under 6.595.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals92.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.5%-------
Under 5.590.1%-------
Over 1.583.1%-------
Away +2 handicap81.4%-------
Home +2 handicap81.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.3%-------
Home under 2.5 goals79.3%-------
Under 4.579.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals79.1%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.0%-------
Home or Away74.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Finn Harps and Kerry have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Kerry have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Finn Harps and Kerry have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
FH wins
2
Draws
3
KER wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Finn Harps vs Kerry · H/A from FH
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/26AKerry Vs FH2-1
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
08/08/25AKerry Vs FH0-1
18/04/25HFH Vs Kerry4-2
14/02/25AKerry Vs FH2-0
27/09/24AKerry Vs FH1-1
04/07/24HFH Vs Kerry1-0
24/05/24AKerry Vs FH2-0

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AUCD Vs FH5-4
21/08/26HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers1-3
07/08/26ABray Wanderers Vs FH5-0
03/08/26ALongford Town Vs FH5-0
31/07/26HFH Vs Cork City0-3
24/07/26AKerry Vs FH2-1
10/07/26HFH Vs Treaty United0-1
17/10/25HFH Vs UCD3-4
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
10/10/25ADundalk Vs FH3-0

KerryKerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HKER Vs Treaty United3-1
21/08/26HKER Vs UCD1-1
07/08/26ACork City Vs KER3-1
03/08/26HKER Vs Cobh Ramblers3-0
31/07/26ABray Wanderers Vs KER0-4
24/07/26HKER Vs Finn Harps2-1
10/07/26AWexford Vs KER2-2
17/10/25ABray Wanderers Vs KER5-1
13/10/25AFinn Harps Vs KER1-1
10/10/25HKER Vs Wexford0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.90
HomeDLLLL1.00
AwayLLLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%25%15%
AVG goals3.042.833.23
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.201.251.15
Conceded1.841.582.08
BTTS62%58%65%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Kerry
Kerry
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.10
HomeLWWDW1.52
AwayDLDWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%44%12%
AVG goals2.842.323.36
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %50%36%64%
Over 3.5 %32%16%48%
Scored1.241.241.24
Conceded1.601.082.12
BTTS50%36%64%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
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Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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