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Finn Harps vs Longford Town Result & Analysis

Date: 04/04/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 1-1
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Vs
56%
25%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Finn Harps win✗ Miss
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D13L12L02L01L13L11D12L50W10WA·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02A·TRE28/02A·UCD07/03H·COB14/03H·BRA21/03A·ATH28/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.371.461.080.941.59
vs Stronger (13)1.081.461.171.171.001.71
vs Similar (17)1.241.291.711.000.901.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L11D20W22D01L11D05L32W12L20WA·TRE27/09H·ATH05/10H·COB12/10A·UCD18/10H·BRA15/02H·ATH01/03A·COB07/03H·KER15/03A·DUN21/03H·TRE29/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.601.441.060.932.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.571.862.001.001.402.20
vs Weaker (23)1.091.521.361.070.672.22
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.0%
2-0
10.1%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
0-0
7.2%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.3%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
01234
07.2%4.9%2.9%1.0%0.2%
110%12%5.3%1.7%0.4%
210%9.9%4.8%1.6%0.4%
36.1%6.0%2.9%1.0%0.2%
42.8%2.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dundalk
2.19
Cobh Ramblers
1.89
Bray Wanderers
1.82
UCD
1.51
Treaty United
1.31
Wexford
1.26
Longford Town
1.25
Finn Harps
1.00
Kerry
1.00
Athlone Town
0.56
Finn Harps is 0.25 points worse than Longford Town in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.25).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dundalk
2.06
Cobh Ramblers
1.87
Bray Wanderers
1.74
Treaty United
1.33
UCD
1.32
Wexford
1.20
Longford Town
1.19
Finn Harps
1.17
Kerry
1.11
Athlone Town
0.81
Finn Harps is 0.03 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.19).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dundalk
0.86
Cobh Ramblers
1.03
UCD
1.19
Treaty United
1.28
Wexford
1.37
Bray Wanderers
1.41
Finn Harps
1.58
Kerry
1.61
Longford Town
1.64
Athlone Town
1.92
Finn Harps is 0.06 goals better than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.64).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L10W01L01L01L01L11D30W00DA·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02A·TRE28/02A·UCD07/03H·COB14/03H·BRA21/03A·ATH28/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.850.620.470.47
vs Stronger (13)0.690.770.671.000.710.57
vs Similar (17)0.590.351.000.290.300.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L10W10W01L11D03L12L11D00DA·TRE27/09H·ATH05/10H·COB12/10A·UCD18/10H·BRA15/02H·ATH01/03A·COB07/03H·KER15/03A·DUN21/03H·TRE29/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.800.560.750.570.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.711.000.500.800.80
vs Weaker (23)0.480.830.500.790.440.89
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L02L01L00D12L10W01L20W10WA·BRA11/10H·WEX14/10H·TRE18/10A·KER14/02H·DUN21/02A·TRE28/02A·UCD07/03H·COB14/03H·BRA21/03A·ATH28/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.830.620.460.471.12
vs Stronger (13)0.380.690.500.170.291.14
vs Similar (17)0.650.940.710.710.601.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W12L00D00D02L20W01L20WA·TRE27/09H·ATH05/10H·COB12/10A·UCD18/10H·BRA15/02H·ATH01/03A·COB07/03H·KER15/03A·DUN21/03H·TRE29/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.800.880.310.361.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.711.141.000.500.601.40
vs Weaker (23)0.610.700.860.290.221.33
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (20)
€3m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (3)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (6)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (11)
€2m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FH wins
2
Draws
1
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Finn Harps vs Longford Town · H/A from FH
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/24HFH Vs Longford Town1-0
28/06/24ALongford Town Vs FH1-1
10/05/24HFH Vs Longford Town3-2
17/02/24ALongford Town Vs FH2-3
25/08/23HFH Vs Longford Town0-1
09/06/23ALongford Town Vs FH2-3
28/04/23HFH Vs Longford Town1-1
18/03/23ALongford Town Vs FH0-1

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/25AAthlone Town Vs FH0-1
21/03/25HFH Vs Bray Wanderers5-0
14/03/25HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers1-2
07/03/25AUCD Vs FH1-1
28/02/25ATreaty United Vs FH3-1
21/02/25HFH Vs Dundalk0-1
14/02/25AKerry Vs FH2-0
18/10/24HFH Vs Treaty United1-2
14/10/24HFH Vs Wexford1-3
11/10/24ABray Wanderers Vs FH2-2

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25HLT Vs Treaty United2-0
21/03/25ADundalk Vs LT2-1
15/03/25HLT Vs Kerry3-2
07/03/25ACobh Ramblers Vs LT5-0
01/03/25HLT Vs Athlone Town1-1
15/02/25HLT Vs Bray Wanderers0-1
18/10/24AUCD Vs LT2-2
12/10/24HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers2-0
05/10/24HLT Vs Athlone Town1-1
27/09/24ATreaty United Vs LT3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.20
HomeLLLLW1.58
AwayDLLDW0.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%46%19%
AVG goals2.462.382.54
Over 1.5 %72%71%73%
Over 2.5 %34%38%31%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.121.330.92
Conceded1.341.041.62
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet22%38%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW0.84
HomeWLDWW1.19
AwayLLDLL0.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%31%4%
AVG goals2.802.852.75
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.061.270.83
Conceded1.741.581.92
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DundalkDundalk3679
64%
2.2
7431+43
2.9
72%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0122.10.9
-
2Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3872
58%
1.9
7139+32
2.9
82%
63%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
3Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3971
59%
1.8
6855+13
3.2
79%
67%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
-
4UCDUCD3756
43%
1.5
4944+5
2.5
68%
46%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United3951
36%
1.3
5250+2
2.6
72%
46%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6Longford TownLongford Town3645
33%
1.2
4359-16
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
7WexfordWexford3544
34%
1.3
4248-6
2.6
71%
49%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
8Finn HarpsFinn Harps3636
22%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
75%
50%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
9KerryKerry3636
25%
1.0
4058-18
2.7
72%
44%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Athlone TownAthlone Town3620
8%
0.6
2969-40
2.7
75%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Ireland: First Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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