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Finn Harps vs Longford Town Prediction & Stats

Date: 18/09/2026
Time: 18:45
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Vs
32%
26%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Finn Harps and Longford Town is finely balanced, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Finn Harps, struggling after five consecutive defeats, have averaged 1.17 goals for and 1.67 against at home against stronger opposition. Longford Town, fresh from a win, have scored 1.27 and conceded 1.64 on the road against weaker teams. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 24 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5 % probability. Home win stands at 33 %, draw at 27 %, and away win at 41 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7 %), Under 5.5 (92.2 %), Away +2 handicap (84.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (83.8 %), and Under 4.5 (82.5 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Finn Harps win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town win
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L11D34L01L12L03L05L05L13L45LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.031.071.670.932.40
vs Stronger (14)1.002.291.001.861.002.71
vs Similar (16)1.001.811.121.500.882.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W31W21W43W12L10W50W12L42W22DA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.502.071.291.251.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.562.001.502.001.602.00
vs Weaker (21)1.671.292.301.001.091.55
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
Finn Harps goals ↓
Longford Town goals →
01234
06.0%6.8%6.4%3.4%1.4%
15.8%12%8.9%4.8%1.9%
24.8%7.8%6.3%3.4%1.4%
32.3%3.6%2.9%1.6%0.6%
40.8%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Finn Harps goals (down), columns = Longford Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Finn Harps is 1.86 points worse than Longford Town in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Finn Harps is 1.71 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 2.57).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Finn Harps is 1.86 goals worse than Longford Town in terms of goals conceded per game (3.43 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Finn Harps or Draw
58.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers Finn Harps + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps or Longford Town
73.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers Finn Harps + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Longford Town
67.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
41%
covers Draw + Longford Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
80.0%
Under
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
21.9%
Under
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Finn Harps, so a minus line means Finn Harps give that many goals of a start and Longford Town receive them. At -1, Finn Harps must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Finn Harps win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -2
5.5%
Draw -2
9.6%
Longford Town +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps -1
15.1%
Draw -1
17.1%
Longford Town +1
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +1
58.6%
Draw +1
19.8%
Longford Town -1
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Finn Harps)
Finn Harps +2
78.4%
Draw +2
12.8%
Longford Town -2
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L13L01L12L00D01L02L03L21WA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.900.330.870.600.93
vs Stronger (14)0.360.640.140.710.570.57
vs Similar (16)0.561.120.501.000.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L21W01L10W10W02L31W20WA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.600.930.500.620.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.780.750.500.801.00
vs Weaker (21)0.760.521.000.500.550.55
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L10W21W00D00D03L04L03L10W24LA·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08A·BRA07/08H·COB21/08A·UCD28/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.130.730.800.331.47
vs Stronger (14)0.641.640.861.140.432.14
vs Similar (16)0.440.690.620.500.250.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D20W20W22D11D00D40W10W11D02LA·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07H·WEX25/07A·TRE31/07H·FIN03/08A·ATH07/08H·BRA22/08A·COB28/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.901.140.790.621.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.781.220.751.500.801.00
vs Weaker (21)0.900.761.300.500.551.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.0%-------
Under 5.591.5%-------
Away +2 handicap84.9%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.4%-------
Under 4.581.4%-------
Over 1.581.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.0%-------
Home +2 handicap78.4%-------
Away under 2.5 goals78.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.3%-------
Home or Away73.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
FH wins
5
Draws
1
LT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Finn Harps vs Longford Town · H/A from FH
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26ALongford Town Vs FH5-0
05/09/25ALongford Town Vs FH1-1
04/07/25HFH Vs Longford Town0-0
17/05/25ALongford Town Vs FH0-0
04/04/25HFH Vs Longford Town1-1
13/09/24HFH Vs Longford Town1-0
28/06/24ALongford Town Vs FH1-1
10/05/24HFH Vs Longford Town3-2

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AUCD Vs FH5-4
21/08/26HFH Vs Cobh Ramblers1-3
07/08/26ABray Wanderers Vs FH5-0
03/08/26ALongford Town Vs FH5-0
31/07/26HFH Vs Cork City0-3
24/07/26AKerry Vs FH2-1
10/07/26HFH Vs Treaty United0-1
17/10/25HFH Vs UCD3-4
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
10/10/25ADundalk Vs FH3-0

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ACobh Ramblers Vs LT2-2
22/08/26HLT Vs Bray Wanderers4-2
07/08/26AAthlone Town Vs LT2-1
03/08/26HLT Vs Finn Harps5-0
31/07/26ATreaty United Vs LT0-1
25/07/26HLT Vs Wexford1-2
10/07/26ACork City Vs LT3-4
17/10/25AAthlone Town Vs LT1-2
10/10/25HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers3-1
05/10/25ATreaty United Vs LT1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.90
HomeDLLLL1.00
AwayLLLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%25%15%
AVG goals3.042.833.23
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.201.251.15
Conceded1.841.582.08
BTTS62%58%65%
Clean Sheet20%21%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.38
HomeWWLWW1.80
AwayWWWLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%52%24%
AVG goals2.962.883.04
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.421.761.08
Conceded1.541.121.96
BTTS60%56%64%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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