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FK Aksu vs FK Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: 08/10/2022
Time: 12:00
Final 3-0
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Vs
45%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FK Aksu win✓ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D03L10W24L12L01L42W43W10W01LH·SHA25/06A·ORD29/06H·KYZ03/07A·SHA12/07H·KAI21/08A·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.141.521.500.900.822.09
vs Stronger (7)0.432.141.001.330.002.75
vs Similar (14)1.501.211.710.711.291.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W01L11D22D40W32W02L21W31WH·LIN21/07A·LIN26/07A·ZRI04/08H·ZRI11/08H·TAR21/08H·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.261.870.731.331.92
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.000.001.005.00
vs Similar (13)1.461.001.830.671.141.29
vs Weaker (12)2.001.332.120.881.752.25
Clean sheet %37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.3%
FK Aksu goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
01234
05.9%5.3%4.3%1.9%0.6%
17.1%12%7.2%3.2%1.1%
27.0%9.3%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.0%5.3%3.5%1.6%0.5%
41.7%2.2%1.5%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Aksu goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
FK Aksu is 0.42 points worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.81).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
FK Aksu is 0.54 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.77).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
FK Aksu is 0.15 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.27).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

FK AksuFK Aksu

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

For 3.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

120543532210479851211H·ZRIA·ZRIA·LINA·FERH·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

1207543221123127425H·ZRIA·ZRIA·LINA·FERH·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 18.5 · Total 30.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

33014199183327H·ZRIA·FER
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FK AksuFK Aksu

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (7)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (14)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (27)9.010.08.31.11.11.130.033.027.0
vs Stronger (2)11.511.012.03.55.02.027.0-27.0
vs Similar (13)7.39.06.51.82.01.633.033.0-
vs Weaker (12)---0.00.00.0---
% over line40%50%33%15%13%17%100%100%100%
% under line60%50%67%85%87%83%0%0%0%
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK AksuFK Aksu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L00D03L02L01L22D22D00D01LH·SHA25/06A·ORD29/06H·KYZ03/07A·SHA12/07H·KAI21/08A·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.950.500.500.361.36
vs Stronger (7)0.001.140.000.670.001.50
vs Similar (14)0.640.860.710.430.571.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D01L22D20W20W01L11D11DH·LIN21/07A·LIN26/07A·ZRI04/08H·ZRI11/08H·TAR21/08H·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.520.730.400.580.67
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.000.001.003.00
vs Similar (13)0.770.380.830.330.710.43
vs Weaker (12)0.580.500.750.500.250.50
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK AksuFK Aksu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W21W10W00D20W21W10W00DH·SHA25/06A·ORD29/06H·KYZ03/07A·SHA12/07H·KAI21/08A·AKT26/08H·MAQ04/09A·TAR10/09H·AKZ15/09A·KAS01/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.571.000.400.450.73
vs Stronger (7)0.431.001.000.670.001.25
vs Similar (14)0.860.361.000.290.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L10W00D20W12L01L10W20WH·LIN21/07A·LIN26/07A·ZRI04/08H·ZRI11/08H·TAR21/08H·ORD27/08A·KAI05/09H·ATY10/09A·FC 14/09H·SHA02/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.741.130.330.751.25
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (13)0.690.621.000.330.430.86
vs Weaker (12)1.420.831.380.381.501.75
Clean sheet %56% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Aksu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Aksu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Aksu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
FA wins
0
Draws
1
FTK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Aksu vs FK Tobol Kostanay · H/A from FA
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/22AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs FA2-0

FK AksuFK Aksu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/22AKaspiy Vs FA1-0
15/09/22HFA Vs Akzhayik1-0
10/09/22ATaraz Vs FA3-4
04/09/22HFA Vs Maqtaaral4-2
26/08/22AAktobe Vs FA1-0
21/08/22HFA Vs Kairat Almaty1-2
12/07/22AShakhter Karagandy Vs FA4-2
03/07/22HFA Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-0
29/06/22AOrdabasy Vs FA3-0
25/06/22HFA Vs Shakhter Karagandy1-1

FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/22HFTK Vs Shakhter Karagandy3-1
14/09/22AFC Astana Vs FTK1-2
10/09/22HFTK Vs Atyrau0-2
05/09/22AKairat Almaty Vs FTK2-3
27/08/22HFTK Vs Ordabasy4-0
21/08/22HFTK Vs Taraz2-2
11/08/22HFTK Vs Zrinjski1-1
04/08/22AZrinjski Vs FTK1-0
26/07/22ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs FTK0-1
21/07/22HFTK Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.24
HomeDWLWW1.90
AwayLLLWL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%60%18%
AVG goals2.672.402.91
Over 1.5 %67%70%64%
Over 2.5 %48%40%55%
Over 3.5 %19%10%27%
Scored1.141.500.82
Conceded1.520.902.09
BTTS43%50%36%
Clean Sheet33%50%18%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Tobol Kostanay
FK Tobol Kostanay
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.70
HomeDDWLW2.13
AwayLWLWW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%33%
AVG goals2.892.603.25
Over 1.5 %78%80%75%
Over 2.5 %56%40%75%
Over 3.5 %41%33%50%
Scored1.631.871.33
Conceded1.260.731.92
BTTS56%40%75%
Clean Sheet37%53%17%
Corners9.0010.008.33
Cards6.008.504.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC AstanaFC Astana2654
62%
2.1
6521+44
3.3
81%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.50.8
-
2AktobeAktobe2652
62%
2.0
4328+15
2.7
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.1
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2647
54%
1.8
4633+13
3.0
85%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.81.3
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2642
46%
1.6
3436-2
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.31.4
-
5OrdabasyOrdabasy2638
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.5
-
6FK AksuFK Aksu2636
42%
1.4
3237-5
2.7
69%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2631
31%
1.2
2838-10
2.5
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
8KaspiyKaspiy2631
35%
1.2
2642-16
2.6
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.01.6
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2630
27%
1.2
3332+1
2.5
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2630
31%
1.2
3135-4
2.5
65%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
11AtyrauAtyrau2629
27%
1.1
3039-9
2.7
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.5
-
12TarazTaraz2628
23%
1.1
2729-2
2.2
62%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.1
-
13ArysArys2628
23%
1.1
2535-10
2.3
69%
38%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
14AkzhayikAkzhayik2625
23%
1.0
1931-12
1.9
54%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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