FK Crvena Zvezda’s attacking form is a bright sign for the home side, averaging 2.67 goals per game while conceding only 0.6 against weaker opposition. Vojvodina, meanwhile, struggles away, scoring just 1.0 and conceding 2.0 against stronger teams. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.3 goals, most likely 3 goals overall. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, with a 9.8% chance. The match outcome favoured by the model is a home win, with a 61% probability, a 21% chance of a draw, and 18% for an away victory. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 85.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9%, and Under 5.5 cards at 70.7%. Additional picks are Over 19.5 fouls at 89.9% and Over 21.5 fouls at 80.2%, while Under 5.5 cards and Under 11.5 corners are the only selections with a hit probability. The home side’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, and the away side comes off a win, adding momentum to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The win extends FK Crvena Zvezda’s two-game winning run, ending 3-1 over Vojvodina. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 61 %, and it was correct. The predicted most likely score of 2-1 at 9.8 % came close, though the final was 3-1. The model’s suggested picks performed mixed: Over 1.5 goals at 85.6 % hit, Over 2.5 cards at 82.4 % hit, Under 11.5 corners at 74.9 % hit, and Under 5.5 cards at 70.7 % hit. However, Over 19.5 fouls at 89.9 % missed and Over 21.5 fouls at 80.2 % missed. Overall, the model delivered a solid forecast, with most high-probability selections proving accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Crvena Zvezda win✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina win✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.63
2.50
0.62
1.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
2.36
0.64
2.67
0.60
2.00
0.69
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Vojvodina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vojvodina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.12
0.81
1.57
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.39
0.78
1.55
0.73
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (9)
2.89
1.00
3.50
0.75
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
Under 1.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
8.6%
3-1 ✓
7.2%
1-0
6.9%
3-0
6.3%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.0%
FK Crvena Zvezda goals ↓
Vojvodina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.1%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
1
6.9%
9.7%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.3%
7.2%
4.1%
1.6%
0.4%
4
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Crvena Zvezda goals (down), columns = Vojvodina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.00
Radnicki 1923
1.80
Cukaricki
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.67
Mladost Lucani
1.67
Radnik Surdulica
1.60
OFK Beograd
1.33
Železničar Pančevo
1.25
Novi Pazar
1.17
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.80
FK Partizan
0.80
Zemun
0.17
FK Crvena Zvezda is 1.00 points better than Vojvodina in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.50
Vojvodina
1.67
Cukaricki
1.50
FK Partizan
1.40
IMT Novi Beograd
1.33
Radnicki 1923
1.20
OFK Beograd
1.17
Mladost Lucani
1.17
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Novi Pazar
0.67
Macva
0.67
Radnicki NIS
0.40
Zemun
0.33
FK Crvena Zvezda is 1.83 goals better than Vojvodina in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.25
IMT Novi Beograd
0.67
Mladost Lucani
0.67
Radnik Surdulica
0.80
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Vojvodina
1.00
Cukaricki
1.17
Novi Pazar
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.50
FK Partizan
1.80
Zemun
2.00
Macva
2.00
FK Crvena Zvezda is 0.75 goals better than Vojvodina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
60%
Radnicki NIS
59%
Železničar Pančevo
59%
Radnicki 1923
57%
OFK Beograd
57%
Vojvodina
53%
IMT Novi Beograd
52%
Radnik Surdulica
51%
Novi Pazar
47%
Cukaricki
40%
Macva
39%
Zemun
38%
Mladost Lucani
38%
FK Crvena Zvezda is 7.0 percentage points better than Vojvodina in terms of average possession (60% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Crvena Zvezda
For 6.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vojvodina
For 2.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 6.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 15.5 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FK Crvena Zvezda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.6
10.0
3.3
2.7
3.8
24.1
23.5
24.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
10.2
12.0
8.3
4.2
5.0
3.3
25.2
28.0
22.3
vs Weaker (44)
10.4
10.4
10.3
3.1
2.4
3.9
24.0
22.9
25.1
% over line
60%
62%
58%
46%
32%
60%
67%
67%
67%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
54%
68%
40%
33%
33%
33%
This opponent (Vojvodina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vojvodina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.7
9.6
4.7
3.8
5.8
27.4
26.7
28.2
vs Stronger (5)
7.4
9.0
6.3
4.0
5.0
3.3
25.4
23.5
26.7
vs Similar (28)
9.0
8.5
9.6
5.3
3.7
7.2
29.0
28.7
29.3
vs Weaker (17)
9.8
8.9
10.8
4.1
3.8
4.4
25.5
24.1
27.0
% over line
40%
31%
50%
66%
54%
79%
82%
73%
92%
% under line
60%
69%
50%
34%
46%
21%
18%
27%
8%
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
10.3
Mladost Lucani
9.5
Vojvodina
9.1
OFK Beograd
9.1
Macva
9.0
Zemun
9.0
Novi Pazar
8.9
FK Partizan
8.9
Radnicki 1923
8.8
Radnik Surdulica
8.7
Cukaricki
8.6
IMT Novi Beograd
8.6
Železničar Pančevo
8.6
Radnicki NIS
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Radnicki 1923
5.5
Radnik Surdulica
5.3
Radnicki NIS
5.0
Cukaricki
4.9
Vojvodina
4.9
OFK Beograd
4.7
FK Partizan
4.6
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Zemun
4.5
Novi Pazar
4.4
Železničar Pančevo
4.4
Mladost Lucani
4.2
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.6
Macva
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radnicki 1923
31.1
Radnik Surdulica
30.2
Cukaricki
29.4
IMT Novi Beograd
29.4
Radnicki NIS
29.3
OFK Beograd
29.2
Železničar Pančevo
27.8
Novi Pazar
27.6
Vojvodina
27.4
FK Partizan
26.5
Mladost Lucani
25.6
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
Zemun
22.0
Macva
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.3%
Under 3.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
80.2%
Under 21.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Crvena Zvezda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.06
0.19
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.14
0.36
1.13
0.13
1.15
0.62
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Vojvodina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vojvodina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.69
0.44
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.44
0.45
0.45
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.44
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Crvena Zvezda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.27
1.44
0.44
0.79
0.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.21
0.29
1.53
0.47
0.85
0.08
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Vojvodina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vojvodina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.43
1.44
0.38
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.33
1.09
0.27
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.56
2.00
0.75
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Crvena Zvezda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Crvena Zvezda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vojvodina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →