Pythia gives FK Jablonec a 45% win probability against Sigma Olomouc in the Czech-Republic: Czech Liga on 2026-07-26, with 27% for the draw and 27% for Sigma Olomouc. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).
Results analysis
FK Jablonec finished 2-1 against Sigma Olomouc (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 45% home win, 27% draw and 27% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (85%), Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Jablonec winâś“ Hit
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sigma Olomouc winâś— Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Jablonec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.50
1.07
1.12
1.81
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
3.67
3.00
3.00
1.00
3.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.13
1.50
0.88
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
0.56
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sigma Olomouc) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sigma Olomouc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.33
1.07
1.60
1.67
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
0.80
1.20
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.29
1.67
1.17
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
2.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Jablonec) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1 âś“
9.3%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.4%
FK Jablonec goals ↓
Sigma Olomouc goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.5%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.0%
13%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
2
8.0%
9.3%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.1%
4.8%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Jablonec goals (down), columns = Sigma Olomouc goals (across).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Czech-Republic: Czech Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: Czech Liga stats & trends →
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