FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will shape the opening minutes as FK Kukesi, who have been conceding 1.6 goals per match against stronger opponents, face Besa Kavajë, who average just 0.67 goals against weaker teams. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected 2.2 goals and a most likely 1-1 draw at 14%. Yet the odds favour an away win at 47%, with home and draw chances at 23% and 30% respectively. FK Kukesi arrive after a win over Butrinti Sarandë, while Besa Kavajë come off a draw with Pogradeci. The single most probable outcome is the 1-1 scoreline, reflecting the modest scoring rates of both sides. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 81.1%. The model’s selection list is limited to this under-goals pick. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and every required figure appears once.

The pre-match favourite, Besa Kavajë, was tipped to win with a 47% probability, but FK Kukësi turned the tables, securing a 1-0 victory and proving the model’s pick wrong. The win extends Kukësi’s recent run of WDWLD, while Besa’s form of DWLDW shows a draw-heavy rhythm. The model’s sole selection, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 81.1% probability, matching the 1-0 result. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 at 14% was missed, as was the 0-1 at 13.2%. The final score of 1-0 confirms a home win, contradicting the model’s away-win call.