FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 2-1

FK Kukesi

33%

28%

39%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Besa Kavajë

Albania: 1st Division

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

FK Kukesi hosts Besa Kavajë in a finely balanced match, with the away side's recent form storyline taking center stage. Besa Kavajë is coming off a defeat, while FK Kukesi is riding high after a win. The model's selection is the away win, with a 39% chance of success, making it the favourite to take home the three points. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 77.4% probability of hitting, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 70.1% probability of success. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time. FK Kukesi's home form is mediocre, scoring 1.12 goals on average and conceding 1.38, while Besa Kavajë's away form is slightly better, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 1.33 against weaker opponents. The model predicts a 33% chance of a home win, 28% chance of a draw, and 39% chance of an away win.

Results analysis

The upset of the day belongs to FK Kukesi, who stunned Besa Kavajë 2-1. This win extends their run of form, which includes a win in their last outing against Butrinti Sarandë. The model's selection was the away win, but it was incorrect, as the home side proved too strong. Besa Kavajë had been coming off a defeat, but they still managed to score the opener. The model's call was wrong, as FK Kukesi were not the favourites. In fact, the model's selection, the away win, had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's suggested picks, however, were correct, as both the Over 1.5 and Under 3.5 selections hit. The Over 1.5 had a pre-match probability of 77.4%, while the Under 3.5 had a pre-match probability of 70.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Kukesi win✓ Hit

33.4%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

27.8%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Besa Kavajë win✗ Miss

38.8%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Kukesi

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.5

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.90	1.53	1.21	1.21	0.62	1.81
vs Stronger (21)	0.81	1.67	1.22	1.22	0.50	2.00
vs Similar (9)	1.11	1.22	1.20	1.20	1.00	1.25
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	23% (-9pp vs league)

This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.30	1.33	1.40	1.07	1.20	1.60
vs Stronger (3)	1.00	1.33	1.50	2.00	0.00	0.00
vs Similar (17)	1.24	1.47	1.44	1.00	1.00	2.00
vs Weaker (10)	1.50	1.10	1.25	0.75	1.67	1.33
Clean sheet %	20% (-12pp vs league)

This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

77.4%

Under 1.5

22.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

52.1%

Under 2.5

47.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

29.9%

Under 3.5

70.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

57.1%

42.9%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

13.2%

1-2

8.7%

2-1 ✓

7.9%

0-1

7.9%

0-0

7.5%

1-0

7.2%

0-2

6.6%

2-2

5.7%

FK Kukesi goals ↓

	Besa Kavajë goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	7.9%	6.6%	3.1%	1.1%
1	7.2%	13%	8.7%	4.2%	1.5%
2	5.5%	7.9%	5.7%	2.7%	1.0%
3	2.4%	3.5%	2.5%	1.2%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.2%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Kukesi goals (down), columns = Besa Kavajë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Laci

2.39

Skenderbeu Korce

2.33

Pogradeci

2.06

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.36

Kastrioti Krujë

1.18

Besa Kavajë

1.18

Burreli

1.12

Korabi Peshkopi

1.09

Luftëtari

1.03

Bylis B

1.00

FK Kukesi

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

Apolonia Fier

0.85

Lushnja

0.79

Butrinti Sarandë

0.00

FK Kukesi is 0.18 points worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Pogradeci

1.91

Laci

1.82

Skenderbeu Korce

1.73

Kastrioti Krujë

1.33

Besa Kavajë

1.24

Luftëtari

1.12

Bylis B

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

FK Kukesi

0.97

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

0.97

Korabi Peshkopi

0.94

Apolonia Fier

0.94

Burreli

0.82

Lushnja

0.79

Butrinti Sarandë

0.00

FK Kukesi is 0.27 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Laci

0.70

Skenderbeu Korce

0.76

Pogradeci

0.94

Bylis B

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.00

Korabi Peshkopi

1.18

Luftëtari

1.29

Besa Kavajë

1.30

Apolonia Fier

1.33

Burreli

1.36

Lushnja

1.42

FK Kukesi

1.46

Kastrioti Krujë

1.73

Butrinti Sarandë

2.00

FK Kukesi is 0.15 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	77.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 3.5	70.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BB (55)

€6m

SK (31)

€4m

LAC (24)

€3m

POG (47)

€3m

BK (34)

€3m

AF (39)

€2m

KK (24)

€2m

KP (34)

€2m

FK (38)

€2m

IF (35)

€2m

BUR (29)

€2m

LUF (42)

€2m

LUS (40)

€1m

FK Kukesi and Besa Kavajë have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë · H/A from FK

Date	H/A	Game	Score
31/01/26	H	FK Vs Besa Kavajë	1-0
29/10/25	A	Besa Kavajë Vs FK	3-1
16/02/25	A	Besa Kavajë Vs FK	2-1
02/02/25	A	Besa Kavajë Vs FK	2-1
30/10/24	H	FK Vs Besa Kavajë	0-5

FK Kukesi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/04/26	A	Laci Vs FK	2-1
19/04/26	H	FK Vs Korabi Peshkopi	1-1
11/04/26	A	Pogradeci Vs FK	5-1
04/04/26	H	FK Vs Apolonia Fier	2-0
22/03/26	A	Kastrioti Krujë Vs FK	0-2
18/03/26	H	FK Vs Lushnja	3-2
14/03/26	A	Burreli Vs FK	0-0
07/03/26	H	FK Vs Luftëtari	0-0
01/03/26	A	Iliria Fushë-Krujë Vs FK	1-1
21/02/26	A	Skenderbeu Korce Vs FK	2-1

Besa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/04/26	H	BK Vs Korabi Peshkopi	1-1
19/04/26	A	Apolonia Fier Vs BK	1-2
11/04/26	H	BK Vs Lushnja	0-0
05/04/26	A	Luftëtari Vs BK	2-3
22/03/26	H	BK Vs Skenderbeu Korce	0-1
18/03/26	A	Laci Vs BK	5-3
14/03/26	H	BK Vs Pogradeci	2-3
07/03/26	A	Kastrioti Krujë Vs BK	2-3
01/03/26	H	BK Vs Burreli	1-0
22/02/26	A	Iliria Fushë-Krujë Vs BK	1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

FK Kukesi

Albania: 1st Division

Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLDL	0.84
Home	WDWWD	1.33
Away	DDWLL	0.38

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	22%	38%	8%
AVG goals	2.48	2.58	2.38
Over 1.5 %	76%	75%	77%
Over 2.5 %	52%	54%	50%
Over 3.5 %	16%	21%	12%
Scored	0.96	1.29	0.65
Conceded	1.52	1.29	1.73
BTTS	50%	54%	46%
Clean Sheet	20%	25%	15%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Besa Kavajë

Albania: 1st Division

Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWDWD	1.52
Home	WLLDD	1.62
Away	LWLWW	1.42

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	42%	42%	42%
AVG goals	2.50	2.35	2.67
Over 1.5 %	72%	73%	71%
Over 2.5 %	44%	38%	50%
Over 3.5 %	24%	23%	25%
Scored	1.38	1.42	1.33
Conceded	1.12	0.92	1.33
BTTS	58%	58%	58%
Clean Sheet	30%	35%	25%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Laci	33	79	73%	2.4	60	23	+37	2.5	73%	52%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.8	0.7	-
2	Skenderbeu Korce	33	77	73%	2.3	57	25	+32	2.5	64%	45%	21%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	0	0	0	1.7	0.8	-
3	Pogradeci	33	68	61%	2.1	63	31	+32	2.8	76%	58%	36%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.9	0.9	-
4	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	33	45	33%	1.4	32	33	-1	2.0	67%	36%	6%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
5	Besa Kavajë	33	39	30%	1.2	41	43	-2	2.5	70%	48%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.2	1.3	-
6	Kastrioti Krujë	33	39	33%	1.2	44	57	-13	3.1	76%	61%	39%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.3	1.7	-
7	Burreli	33	37	27%	1.1	27	45	-18	2.2	64%	36%	15%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.8	1.4	-
8	Korabi Peshkopi	33	36	24%	1.1	31	39	-8	2.1	64%	36%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
9	Luftëtari	34	35	21%	1.0	38	44	-6	2.4	76%	47%	21%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.1	1.3	-
10	FK Kukesi	35	35	26%	1.0	34	51	-17	2.4	74%	43%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.0	1.5	-
11	Apolonia Fier	33	28	18%	0.8	31	44	-13	2.3	70%	39%	15%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.9	1.3	-
12	Lushnja	33	26	15%	0.8	26	47	-21	2.2	61%	39%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.8	1.4	-
13	Bylis B	1	1	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
14	Sopoti Librazhd	1	1	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
15	Butrinti Sarandë	1	0	0%	0.0	0	2	-2	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	2.0	-

Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches

FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK Kukesi

Besa Kavajë

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

FK Kukesi

Besa Kavajë

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature