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FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 15:00
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
Vs
37%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The clash between FK Kukësi and Besa Kavajë is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the margins are slim. Home form shows Kukësi scoring only 0.75 goals and conceding 1.25 against stronger opposition, while Besa Kavajë averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded away against weaker teams. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.6%. Probabilities stand at 37% for a Kukësi victory, 29% for a draw and 34% for a Besa win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Under 4.5 (86.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.6%) and Home under 2.5 goals (84.4%). Kukësi’s recent win over Butrinti Sarandë and Besa’s draw against Pogradeci add intrigue, yet the outcome remains uncertain.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FK Kukesi win
37.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D32W20W20W15L11D12L21W11D20WA·BUR14/03H·LUS18/03A·KAS22/03H·APO04/04A·POG11/04H·KOR19/04A·LAC25/04H·BES03/05H·BYL09/05H·BUT28/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.431.331.000.671.87
vs Stronger (11)0.732.180.751.250.712.71
vs Similar (19)1.161.001.550.910.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L35L01L32W00D21W11D12L20W00DH·POG14/03A·LAC18/03H·SKE22/03A·LUF05/04H·LUS11/04A·APO19/04H·KOR25/04A·FK 03/05A·ILI07/05A·POG11/05← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.231.461.001.181.41
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)1.271.321.501.101.081.50
vs Weaker (8)1.381.001.330.671.401.20
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
5.9%
FK Kukesi goals ↓
Besa Kavajë goals →
01234
08.2%7.9%5.9%2.6%0.8%
18.3%14%8.1%3.5%1.1%
26.4%8.4%5.5%2.4%0.8%
32.9%3.8%2.5%1.1%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Kukesi goals (down), columns = Besa Kavajë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi is 0.18 points worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
FK Kukesi is 0.27 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
FK Kukesi is 0.15 goals worse than Besa Kavajë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.30).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Kukesi or Draw
65.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers FK Kukesi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi or Besa Kavajë
71.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers FK Kukesi + Besa Kavajë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Besa Kavajë
63.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
34%
covers Draw + Besa Kavajë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FK Kukesi, so a minus line means FK Kukesi give that many goals of a start and Besa Kavajë receive them. At -1, FK Kukesi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Kukesi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi -2
6.3%
Draw -2
11.2%
Besa Kavajë +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi -1
17.5%
Draw -1
19.5%
Besa Kavajë +1
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi +1
65.5%
Draw +1
18.7%
Besa Kavajë -1
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi +2
84.2%
Draw +2
10.3%
Besa Kavajë -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W10W00D14L01L10W21W00D10WA·BUR14/03H·LUS18/03A·KAS22/03H·APO04/04A·POG11/04H·KOR19/04A·LAC25/04H·BES03/05H·BYL09/05H·BUT28/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.530.470.401.07
vs Stronger (11)0.361.270.500.250.291.86
vs Similar (19)0.530.470.550.550.500.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L00D20W00D10W10W12L20W00DH·POG14/03A·LAC18/03H·SKE22/03A·LUF05/04H·LUS11/04A·APO19/04H·KOR25/04A·FK 03/05A·ILI07/05A·POG11/05← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.370.770.230.650.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.550.320.700.200.420.42
vs Weaker (8)1.120.501.000.331.200.60
Clean sheet %73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W20W01L10W02L00D11D10WA·BUR14/03H·LUS18/03A·KAS22/03H·APO04/04A·POG11/04H·KOR19/04A·LAC25/04H·BES03/05H·BYL09/05H·BUT28/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.670.800.530.270.80
vs Stronger (11)0.360.910.251.000.430.86
vs Similar (19)0.630.531.000.360.120.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Besa Kavajë) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L32W01L12L00D11D01L00D00D00DH·POG14/03A·LAC18/03H·SKE22/03A·LUF05/04H·LUS11/04A·APO19/04H·KOR25/04A·FK 03/05A·ILI07/05A·POG11/05← Superliga1st Division →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.690.770.530.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (22)0.731.000.800.900.671.08
vs Weaker (8)0.250.500.330.330.200.60
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Besa Kavajë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.1%-------
Under 5.594.6%-------
Under 4.586.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals85.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals84.4%-------
Home +2 handicap84.2%-------
Away +2 handicap82.5%-------
Over 1.575.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals74.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals72.8%-------
Under 3.572.3%-------
Home or Away71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
FK Kukesi's squad is €1m less valuable than Besa Kavajë's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Besa Kavajë have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Besa Kavajë have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Besa Kavajë have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
FK wins
0
Draws
4
BK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FK Kukesi vs Besa Kavajë · H/A from FK
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26HFK Vs Besa Kavajë2-1
31/01/26HFK Vs Besa Kavajë1-0
29/10/25ABesa Kavajë Vs FK3-1
16/02/25ABesa Kavajë Vs FK2-1
02/02/25ABesa Kavajë Vs FK2-1
30/10/24HFK Vs Besa Kavajë0-5

FK KukesiFK Kukesi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/26HFK Vs Butrinti Sarandë2-0
09/05/26HFK Vs Bylis B1-1
03/05/26HFK Vs Besa Kavajë2-1
25/04/26ALaci Vs FK2-1
19/04/26HFK Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-1
11/04/26APogradeci Vs FK5-1
04/04/26HFK Vs Apolonia Fier2-0
22/03/26AKastrioti Krujë Vs FK0-2
18/03/26HFK Vs Lushnja3-2
14/03/26ABurreli Vs FK0-0

Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/26APogradeci Vs BK0-0
07/05/26AIliria Fushë-Krujë Vs BK0-2
03/05/26AFK Kukesi Vs BK2-1
25/04/26HBK Vs Korabi Peshkopi1-1
19/04/26AApolonia Fier Vs BK1-2
11/04/26HBK Vs Lushnja0-0
05/04/26ALuftëtari Vs BK2-3
22/03/26HBK Vs Skenderbeu Korce0-1
18/03/26ALaci Vs BK5-3
14/03/26HBK Vs Pogradeci2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW0.92
HomeWDWDW1.38
AwayDDWLL0.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%38%8%
AVG goals2.462.502.42
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %14%15%12%
Scored0.981.270.67
Conceded1.481.231.75
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.56
HomeWLLDD1.68
AwayWWLWD1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%44%44%
AVG goals2.422.242.60
Over 1.5 %70%72%68%
Over 2.5 %44%36%52%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.361.401.32
Conceded1.060.841.28
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet34%36%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BurreliBurreli00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
2Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4OrikuOriku00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
5BylisBylis00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.00.0
-
7Besëlidhja LezhëBesëlidhja Lezhë00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8FK KukesiFK Kukesi00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
9Sopoti LibrazhdSopoti Librazhd00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10PogradeciPogradeci00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
11Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.00.0
-
12Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

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