FK Kukesi are tipped to lift a home win, with the model assigning a 46 % chance to a victory, 28 % for a draw and 25 % to a Korabi win. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open contest, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4 % probability. Home side FK Kukesi have been efficient at home, scoring 1.55 and conceding 0.91 against similar opposition, while Korabi, on the road, has struggled defensively, conceding 1.55 and scoring only 1.18. The model’s selections highlight a very low-risk over/under scenario: Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Under 5.5 (95.2 %) and Under 4.5 (87.9 %). Further picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.2 %). The model also suggests a Home +2 handicap (89.9 %) and an Away under 2.5 goals (90.7 %). FK Kukesi enter the game after a win, whereas Korabi come off a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Kukesi win
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi win
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Kukesi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.18
0.75
1.25
0.71
2.71
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.00
1.55
0.91
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korabi Peshkopi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
0.87
0.73
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.08
0.92
0.69
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.9%
Under 2.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.7%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.0%
FK Kukesi goals ↓
Korabi Peshkopi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.8%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.3%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.4%
4.7%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Kukesi goals (down), columns = Korabi Peshkopi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi is 0.09 points worse than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Oriku
1.10
Flamurtari
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
FK Kukesi is 0.03 goals better than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Oriku
1.23
Flamurtari
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
FK Kukesi is 0.28 goals worse than Korabi Peshkopi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Kukesi or Draw
74.6%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
25%
covers FK Kukesi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi or Korabi Peshkopi
71.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
25%
covers FK Kukesi + Korabi Peshkopi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
53.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Korabi Peshkopi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5
Over
65.6%
Under
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5
Over
28.9%
Under
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Kukesi, so a minus line means FK Kukesi give that many goals of a start and Korabi Peshkopi receive them. At -1, FK Kukesi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Kukesi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi -2
9.7%
Draw -2
14.4%
Korabi Peshkopi +2
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi -1
24.1%
Draw -1
22.4%
Korabi Peshkopi +1
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi +1
74.6%
Draw +1
15.3%
Korabi Peshkopi -1
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Kukesi)
FK Kukesi +2
89.9%
Draw +2
7.1%
Korabi Peshkopi -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Kukesi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.27
0.50
0.25
0.29
1.86
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korabi Peshkopi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.40
0.27
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.46
0.23
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Kukesi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
0.91
0.25
1.00
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.12
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Korabi Peshkopi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.62
0.46
0.46
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Kukesi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Kukesi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Kukesi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
FK Kukesi and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
FK Kukesi and Korabi Peshkopi have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Sopoti Librazhd
Pogradeci
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë