This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.00
1.08
1.00
1.24
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.03
1.21
1.08
1.17
1.00
1.24
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
13.3%
1-0 ✓
10.4%
0-2
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
5.4%
FK Neftekhimik goals ↓
Arsenal Tula goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.3%
3.2%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.4%
6.1%
3.5%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Neftekhimik goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tula goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Fakel
2.00
Ural
1.79
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
KAMAZ
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
Chernomorets
1.03
FK Sokol Saratov
0.76
Chayka
0.65
FK Neftekhimik is 0.12 points better than Arsenal Tula in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rodina Moskva
1.71
Ural
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
KAMAZ
1.35
Fakel
1.29
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Chernomorets
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
Chayka
0.88
FK Sokol Saratov
0.47
FK Neftekhimik is 0.06 goals worse than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fakel
0.65
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Rodina Moskva
0.82
Ural
0.91
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.29
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
Chernomorets
1.44
Chayka
2.24
FK Neftekhimik is 0.09 goals better than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Fakel
53%
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
FK Neftekhimik is 1.0 percentage points better than Arsenal Tula in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arsenal Tula
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Neftekhimik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.5
3.0
2.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
1.8
1.7
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
2.6
3.1
2.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
30%
42%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
70%
58%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
2.0
2.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
12.5
11.0
14.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
23.5
25.0
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
38%
46%
31%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
0%
0%
0%
62%
54%
69%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Shinnik Yaroslavl
17.0
Arsenal Tula
12.5
Chernomorets
11.5
FK Neftekhimik
10.5
Ural
10.5
KAMAZ
10.3
Rodina Moskva
9.0
Fakel
9.0
FC UFA
8.9
Torpedo Moskva
8.0
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fakel
5.0
KAMAZ
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.4
FC UFA
4.3
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.7
Chernomorets
3.7
Chayka
3.7
Chelyabinsk
3.7
FK Sokol Saratov
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.4
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Spartak Kostroma
3.4
Arsenal Tula
3.2
FK Neftekhimik
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fakel
26.7
Ural
25.2
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.4%
Under 9.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.29
0.50
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.52
0.17
0.42
0.87
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.46
0.54
0.41
0.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.41
0.50
0.58
0.41
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.43
0.86
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.63
0.50
0.58
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tula
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.54
0.54
0.59
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.59
0.79
0.58
0.58
0.59
0.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FK Neftekhimik's squad is €4m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€5m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (11)
€7m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
FK Neftekhimik's attack is €1m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (4)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FK Neftekhimik's midfield is €1m less valuable than Arsenal Tula's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
FK Neftekhimik and Arsenal Tula have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Russia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rodina Moskva
Fakel
Ural
Rotor Volgograd
KAMAZ
Spartak Kostroma
Enisey
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Torpedo Moskva
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk
FC UFA
Volga Ulyanovsk
Chernomorets
FK Sokol Saratov
Chayka