Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with FK Neftekhimik’s home form showing a modest 0.92 goals conceded per match, while Chelyabinsk’s away side has been more porous, allowing 1.25 goals on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning 38% to FK Neftekhimik, 32% to a draw, and 30% to Chelyabinsk. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. FK Neftekhimik averages 1.25 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Chelyabinsk nets only 0.69 away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 4.5 (93.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (92.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%). The teams are both coming off defeats, with Neftekhimik losing 0-1 to FC UFA and Chelyabinsk falling 1-2 to FC Sochi.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FK Neftekhimik win
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk win
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.23
1.08
0.94
1.59
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.32
1.25
0.92
0.94
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.36
1.64
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.43
1.36
1.64
0.69
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
65.3%
Under 1.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.1%
Under 2.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.1%
No
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.7%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.8%
FK Neftekhimik goals ↓
Chelyabinsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.7%
7.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FK Neftekhimik goals (down), columns = Chelyabinsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
FK Neftekhimik is 0.46 points better than Chelyabinsk in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
FK Neftekhimik is 0.38 goals worse than Chelyabinsk in terms of goals scored per game (0.62 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
FK Neftekhimik is 0.67 goals better than Chelyabinsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
FK Neftekhimik is 4.0 percentage points better than Chelyabinsk in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
For 5.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelyabinsk
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FK Neftekhimik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
10.0
6.0
1.6
2.0
1.3
27.0
27.0
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
1.7
1.5
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
8.7
10.0
6.0
1.6
2.0
1.3
27.0
27.0
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
22%
26%
19%
100%
100%
-
% under line
67%
50%
100%
78%
74%
81%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.3
1.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
11.0
11.0
-
2.0
2.3
1.7
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
28%
32%
24%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
72%
68%
76%
-
-
-
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FK Neftekhimik or Draw
70.0%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers FK Neftekhimik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik or Chelyabinsk
68.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers FK Neftekhimik + Chelyabinsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chelyabinsk
61.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
30%
covers Draw + Chelyabinsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FK Neftekhimik, so a minus line means FK Neftekhimik give that many goals of a start and Chelyabinsk receive them. At -1, FK Neftekhimik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FK Neftekhimik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FK Neftekhimik)
FK Neftekhimik -2
5.4%
Draw -2
11.3%
Chelyabinsk +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FK Neftekhimik)
FK Neftekhimik -1
16.7%
Draw -1
21.4%
Chelyabinsk +1
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FK Neftekhimik)
FK Neftekhimik +1
70.0%
Draw +1
18.3%
Chelyabinsk -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FK Neftekhimik)
FK Neftekhimik +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.4%
Chelyabinsk -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.46
0.77
0.29
0.82
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.31
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FK Neftekhimik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.77
0.31
0.65
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.57
0.75
0.25
0.62
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.73
0.50
0.79
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Neftekhimik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Neftekhimik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FK Neftekhimik's squad is €4m less valuable than Chelyabinsk's (€5m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FK Neftekhimik's attack is €2m less valuable than Chelyabinsk's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FK Neftekhimik and Chelyabinsk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FK Neftekhimik's defence is €1m less valuable than Chelyabinsk's (€2m vs €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
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FC Sochi
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Ska-khabarovsk