PythiaFootballBETA
The forecast leans toward a tight, low-scoring encounter, with the model picking a draw. Home and away win chances sit at 35% and 27% respectively, while the draw probability is 38%. The expected total goals hover at 1.6, and the most probable total is one goal, with a 30% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 22.2% probability.
FK Neftekhimik, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. KAMAZ, on the road against a comparable side, averages 0.79 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. These figures suggest a cautious, defensively oriented match.
The model’s selections include: Under 25.5 fouls at 99.7%, Under 23.5 fouls at 99.1%, Under 21.5 fouls at 97.1%, Under 3.5 at 92.6% (miss), Under 19.5 fouls at 92.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.3% (hit), and Under 2.5 at 79.3% (miss).
The upset was stark: KAMAZ took a 1-3 victory, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, a Draw that had a 38% probability. The prediction was wrong. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals, at 92.6%, missed, while its pick for Over 2.5 cards, at 80.3%, hit. The Under 2.5 selection, with 79.3%, also missed. FK Neftekhimik, coming off a defeat, failed to secure the win, whereas KAMAZ, fresh from a win, extended their run. The final score of 1-3 confirmed an away triumph, a result that the model did not foresee.
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.93 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.73 | 0.96 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.17 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.11 | 1.21 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| KAMAZ goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 22% | 14% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 17% | 14% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FK NeftekhimikKAMAZFK Neftekhimik| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 9.0 | 9.0 | - | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | - | 28% | 42% | 15% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | - | 72% | 58% | 85% | - | - | - |
KAMAZ| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 52% | 58% | 46% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 48% | 42% | 54% | - | - | - |
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.69 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.67 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.39 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.31 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.31 | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
KAMAZ| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.71 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 25.5 fouls | 99.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 21.5 fouls | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 92.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 19.5 fouls | 92.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 cards | 73.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/09/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/06/23 | A | 0-2 | |
| 16/07/22 | H | 0-1 |
FK Neftekhimik| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/08/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/07/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/07/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/05/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/25 | H | 0-0 |
KAMAZ| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/07/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/05/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/05/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 03/05/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Rodina Moskva | 34 | 68 | 56% | 2.0 | 58 | 28 | +30 | 2.5 | 79% | 44% | 29% | - | 0% | 3.7 | 48% | - | 0% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 |  Fakel | 34 | 68 | 59% | 2.0 | 44 | 22 | +22 | 1.9 | 56% | 29% | 18% | 8.0 | 50% | 4.0 | 64% | - | 0% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 53% |
| 3 |  Ural | 34 | 61 | 53% | 1.8 | 51 | 31 | +20 | 2.4 | 71% | 38% | 21% | - | 0% | 3.2 | 38% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 |  Rotor Volgograd | 34 | 56 | 44% | 1.6 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 2.1 | 65% | 38% | 18% | - | 0% | 4.7 | 67% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | KAMAZ | 34 | 49 | 35% | 1.4 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 38% | 21% | - | 0% | 5.3 | 86% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 34 | 49 | 35% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.6 | 79% | 44% | 21% | 9.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 55% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 7 |  Enisey | 34 | 49 | 38% | 1.4 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 2.1 | 59% | 32% | 18% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.1 | 43% | 32.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 34 | 48 | 32% | 1.4 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 1.8 | 56% | 29% | 15% | - | 0% | 2.5 | 29% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 |  Torpedo Moskva | 34 | 46 | 35% | 1.4 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 2.2 | 68% | 29% | 21% | 8.5 | 50% | 3.4 | 41% | 32.0 | 100% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 10 |  Chelyabinsk | 34 | 44 | 29% | 1.3 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 2.4 | 68% | 44% | 26% | - | 0% | 4.4 | 62% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 34 | 43 | 29% | 1.3 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 2.4 | 71% | 35% | 29% | 9.0 | 0% | 3.2 | 41% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 34 | 39 | 24% | 1.1 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 2.5 | 79% | 50% | 26% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.2 | 50% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 33 | 39 | 27% | 1.2 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 2.4 | 79% | 42% | 21% | 8.0 | 50% | 3.6 | 41% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  FC UFA | 33 | 37 | 27% | 1.1 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 2.1 | 55% | 36% | 24% | - | 0% | 4.6 | 76% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | - |
| 15 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 2.4 | 71% | 47% | 21% | - | 0% | 4.5 | 57% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 16 |  Chernomorets | 34 | 35 | 26% | 1.0 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 2.5 | 74% | 44% | 26% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 |  FK Sokol Saratov | 34 | 26 | 15% | 0.8 | 16 | 44 | -28 | 1.8 | 53% | 24% | 15% | - | 0% | 4.8 | 67% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 18 |  Chayka | 34 | 22 | 15% | 0.6 | 30 | 76 | -46 | 3.1 | 79% | 56% | 38% | - | 0% | 3.6 | 48% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | - |