FK Neftekhimik's recent form has been a concern, coming off a 1-5 defeat to Nizhny Novgorod. However, their home form is relatively solid, conceding just 0.55 goals per game against opponents of similar strength. Shinnik Yaroslavl, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring just 0.71 goals per game against similar opponents, while conceding 1.36 goals.
The model predicts a tight match, with a 45% chance of a home win, 32% chance of a draw, and 23% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%.
The model's selection is a Home win, with a 45% chance of success. The suggested picks include Under 9.5 corners (100% probability), Under 21.5 fouls (100% probability), and Under 3.5 goals (83.8% probability, with a 6% edge). The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
FK Neftekhimik's winless streak continued as they fell to a 0-2 defeat at home to Shinnik Yaroslavl, extending the visitors' run of victories. The away win was a major upset, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, had a 44% probability of occurring, but the model's selection, Home win, ultimately proved incorrect. The model had predicted a 24% chance of an away win, which was the actual result.
The model's selection, Home win, was wrong, while the suggested picks were mixed. The model had suggested Under 3.5 with an 83.9% probability and it hit, but the most likely total goals was 2 with a 28% probability. The most likely scores were 1-1, 1-0, and 0-0, each with a probability of 14.3% and 14.1% respectively.
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 0.94 | 1.65 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.42 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 1.69 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 0.97 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.17 | 0.97 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Shinnik Yaroslavl goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 14% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
FK Neftekhimik
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (3) | - | - | - | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (47) | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 35% | 22% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 65% | 78% | - | - | - |
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (50) | - | - | - | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 24% | 21% | 27% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 76% | 79% | 73% | - | - | - |
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.46 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.07 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.73 | 0.30 | 1.07 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
FK Neftekhimik| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.33 | 0.62 | 0.81 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.36 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 83.9% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | +3.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.3% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +0.2% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/08/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 12/10/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/04/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/09/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/03/23 | A | 3-0 |
FK Neftekhimik| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
Shinnik Yaroslavl| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |